\u3000\u3000 Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920)
Event: on the evening of January 10, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 800 ~ 850 million, yoy 54.40% ~ 64.05%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be RMB 785 ~ 835 million, yoy 69.88% ~ 80.70%. The performance forecast exceeded market expectations.
Under the background of relative shortage of chips, it tests the ability of supply chain management. According to the data of China passenger car Federation, in November 2021, the retail volume of China's passenger car market was 1.816 million, with a month on month increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. It is expected that the data in December 2021 will be 2.35 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% and a month on month increase of 33.6%. Generally speaking, the "core shortage" perplexing the automobile market is gradually improving, The performance forecast shows the company's strong supply chain management ability.
The trend of automotive intelligent industry is clear. The company deeply cultivates NVIDIA ecology, and high value IPU series domain controllers accelerate the growth of the company. Automotive intelligence promotes the transformation of automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to centralized. Domain controller is the key core of automotive intelligence industry. L4 level automatic driving requires more than 400tops computing power, and the automatic driving SOC chip with high computing power and low power consumption will become the core of the domain controller. We expect that the market scale of China's ADAS domain controller is expected to exceed 70 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of more than 55%, and the market prospect is optimistic. Tesla The new forces represented by "weixiaoli" are accelerating the arrival of the wave of automotive intelligence. The company has carried out in-depth cooperation with NVIDIA, and is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the industrial dividend of the rapid improvement of intelligent driving penetration. In the field of high-end intelligent driving domain controller based on NVIDIA chip, Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) The time of mass production leads the world; At the same time, ipu04 domain controller has high computing power and price advantage. We believe that the improvement of L3 + intelligent driving penetration will continue to promote the accelerated growth of the company in the future.
Maintain the "buy" rating. We predict that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve revenue of RMB 92.25/126.39/16.184 billion and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 818/12.04/1.602 billion, giving market value space of RMB 153-247.5 billion in 2025 and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of automobile intelligence is lower than expected; Economic downturn; Supply chain management risk; There is a risk of errors in key assumptions
