\u3000\u3000 Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920)
Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) released the performance forecast for 2021, which exceeded our expectations. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 800 ~ 850 million, a year-on-year increase of + 54.4% ~ + 64.1%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company was RMB 785 ~ 835 million, a year-on-year increase of + 69.9% ~ + 80.7%. Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 309 ~ 359 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.5% ~ + 79.5% and a month on month increase of + 153.6% ~ + 194.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 305 ~ 355 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.5% ~ + 51.9% and a month-on-month increase of + 157.4% ~ + 199.6%.
Core customers benefit from the ease of chip supply, and automatic driving customers continue to increase in volume. The company’s core customers FAW Volkswagen (except Audi) / Geely Automobile / Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) benefited from the alleviation of chip supply shortage, and achieved sales of 33.8/40.6/397000 vehicles respectively in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a month on month ratio of + 71.3% / + 39.33% / + 49.32% respectively. The company’s automatic driving domain controller product ipu03 is carried on Xiaopeng P5 / P7 models. Xiaopeng cars sold 98200 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 263%; Q4 sold 41800 vehicles in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 195.9% and a month on month increase of + 62.67%. Among them, 60569 P7 models were sold throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of + 295.5%, and 21342 Q4 models were sold, a month on month increase of + 8.17%, a year-on-year increase of + 150.29%. 2021q4 new model P5, with a total sales of 7621 vehicles.
Ipu04 will be put into mass production soon, and the performance ceiling of intelligent cockpit + intelligent driving business will be opened. The company’s intelligent driving products continue to be upgraded iteratively. The new generation of automatic driving domain controller product ipu04 went offline for the first time in October 2021. The value of a single vehicle has been greatly improved compared with ipu03, and has been designated by many head customers. Mass production and loading will be carried out in 2022, which will further promote the development of intelligent driving business. The intelligent cockpit business benefited from the trend of instrument LCD + central control large screen, and the product value continued to increase. The company’s intelligent driving + Intelligent cockpit business continues to obtain new project orders, the customer structure continues to be optimized, and the performance ceiling is further opened.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the mitigation of chip supply shortage + large volume of autonomous customers + fixed-point acceleration of domain controller products, we raised our profit forecast for the company, and raised the revenue from 2021 to 2023 from RMB 8.211/102.42/13.672 billion to RMB 9.051/117.76/16.620 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 33.1% / + 30.1% / + 41.1%, The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from RMB 755 / 1025 / 1438 million to RMB 836 / 1199 / 1751 million, a year-on-year increase of + 61.4% / + 43.3% / + 46.1%. The corresponding EPS is 1.51/2.16/3.15 yuan and the corresponding PE is 92.7/64.7/44.3 times. Considering that a new generation of autopilot domain controller ipu04 has been in mass production since the beginning of 22 years, and intelligent Internet connection has high vision + card scarcity + high growth of future performance, Desai is expected to enjoy a higher valuation premium and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the global epidemic control is lower than expected; The duration of core shortage in the industry exceeded expectations; The recovery of downstream passenger car demand was lower than expected.
