\u3000\u3000 Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) (000552)
Gansu state-owned leading coal enterprises, multi-channel layout increment, open up growth space
Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) is a listed company with the background of state-owned coal enterprises in Gansu Province, with integrated operation of coal and electricity. The performance of the main coal industry is stable under the support of a high proportion of the long-term association. The baiyanzi mine under construction and the Yaojie Coal Power asset injection of the group are expected to contribute to the capacity increment in the future; At the same time, coal chemical projects dominated by urea are arranged to extend the coal industry chain and open a diversified management pattern. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 688 / 755 / 1333 million, with a year-on-year increase of 54.7% / 9.6% / 76.6%; EPS is 0.29/0.32/0.57 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 12.6/11.5/6.5 times respectively. Considering that mines under construction, asset injection and coal chemical projects will contribute to future performance increment, the layout of new energy projects has long-term transformation potential and should receive valuation premium, we are optimistic about the future performance growth prospect of the company. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Coal business: high proportion of long-term cooperative price stabilization, and the contribution increment of baiyanzi coking coal mine
The approved production capacity of the company’s coal mines in production is 10.54 million tons, rich in coal resources, and is the second largest coal enterprise in Gansu Province. The coal products are mainly power coal. The “Jinghong coal” produced by the company is a famous coal brand in Gansu Province and enjoys a good reputation in the province. The proportion of the company’s long-term coal association is about 64%, and the pricing mechanism is “benchmark price + floating price”. The coal price remains stable and the favorable performance is released smoothly. Baiyanzi mine, the mine under construction, mainly produces coking coal with a capacity of 900000 tons. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022, which is expected to broaden the categories of coal products and improve the profitability of the company; In terms of stock capacity, the capacity utilization rate of Wangjiashan coal mine is low, and it is expected to increase the output through technological transformation and upgrading.
The multi-channel layout is incremental, and the future growth is full of highlights
Coal chemical project: the company issued convertible bonds in 2020 to raise funds to invest in the construction of coal chemical project. The planned capacity of phase I project includes 300000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 350000 tons of urea, 40000 tons of methanol and other by-products. The project undertakes the urea project of the group and can make full use of the existing market sales network and brand advantages; The raw coal adopts self-produced coal, which has the synergistic effect of coal chemical integration. There is a perennial gap in urea supply in Gansu Province due to the restriction of natural gas supply. The company adopts the coal route, which can ensure the stable supply of urea and make up for the urea gap in Gansu Province. At the same time, it has high market competitiveness in terms of cost and price. It is expected that the project will contribute 390 million yuan in annual performance after it is put into operation.
Group asset injection: the second largest shareholder of the company, Nenghua group, may inject its Yaojie Coal and power assets into the listed company before 2023. Yaojie Coal Power is the third largest coal enterprise in Gansu Province, with a capacity of 5.7 million tons. The coal quality is better than the coal produced by the company, and the profitability is good. If the asset injection is completed in the future, it will contribute 54% of the capacity increment to the company.
New energy project: the company established a joint venture Jinghong new energy and invested in the construction of Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) 28mw photovoltaic self use project. The site is located in the company’s mining area, which is conducive to energy conservation, cost reduction and comprehensive utilization of resources. In addition, the company plans a 1GW agricultural solar complementary smart energy project in Jingyuan mining area in the long term. The project is still in the early planning stage, or provides the company with new energy transformation and growth potential in the long term.
Risk tip: economic growth slows down; Coal prices fell more than expected; Projects under construction and asset injection were less than expected
