\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event:
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021:
In 2021, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2 billion yuan to 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 233 million yuan to 433 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%.
In 2021q4, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.046 billion yuan to 1.246 billion yuan, an increase of 665 million yuan to 865 million yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%.
Key investment points:
The logic of price increase and pattern improvement continued to be fulfilled, and Q4 performance exceeded expectations
In 2021q4, Yuantong is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.046 billion yuan to 1.246 billion yuan, an increase of 665 million yuan to 865 million yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%, and the performance growth exceeded previous expectations. In September, October and November 2021, in response to the call of industry regulatory policies and the arrival of industry peak season, the express industry carried out three rounds of price increases, and the single ticket income of leading enterprises continued to improve. With the support of continuously improved service quality, Yuantong has continuously enhanced its product pricing ability, actively optimized and adjusted the customer structure, took the lead in stabilizing and recovering the single ticket revenue, and the repair speed is ahead of the industry. Compared with the low point in July 2021, Yuantong's single ticket revenue in November 2021 has increased by 28.22% to 2.59 yuan, leading the whole industry. The performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, which means that in the middle of December 2021 when the traditional light and peak seasons are switched, the single ticket income of the enterprise remains resilient, the logic of resonance between price rise and pattern improvement continues to be fulfilled, and the profit center of the enterprise is expected to gradually rise.
The leading enterprises have actively adjusted their competition and investment strategies, and the development of express industry has entered a new stage
Under the background that the express business volume exceeded 100 billion and the income exceeded trillion in 2021, policy guidelines to limit vicious competition in the industry and protect express grass-roots employees frequently appeared. The head express enterprises generally raised the single ticket price, and the price competition slowed down. At the same time, the growth center of the express industry has moved down from 25% to 15%, and the industry has entered the standardized development stage from "bigger" to "stronger". Facing the new policy and market environment, the head enterprises actively adjust their competition and investment strategies.
① competitive strategy: the enterprise changes from cost differentiation to income differentiation, and pays more attention to the balance of service quality, operating profit and market share.
② investment strategy: the head enterprises gradually stop the expansion of capital expenditure, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue decreases year by year, and the signal of supply side optimization is obvious. As the express price gradually rebounded to a reasonable level, the industry entered the roe rising channel.
In the changing environment, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) actively responded, highlighted the digital advantages, and continuously strengthened the competitive strength of the main express industry.
Price increases in the short and medium term resonate with pattern improvement, and the road of internationalization opens up space for long-term growth
① the price rise in the short and medium term resonates with the improvement of the pattern, and the operating profit continues to be repaired: as the first batch of private express enterprises to embark on the express wave, Yuantong has always been actively seeking change, laid a solid chassis of express giants, and built a solid scale foundation, leading investment structure and continuous in-depth fine management. From 2017 to 2019, the demand dividend of the industry still exists, the operating leverage of enterprises increases rapidly, the price for volume strategy highlights the cost performance, and the single ticket cost drops rapidly; Since 2022, the supply and demand environment of the industry has changed, the demand growth center has declined, the enterprise capital expenditure has begun to shrink, and the price competition strategy has gradually failed. The enterprise will rebalance the profit and market share, the single ticket price is expected to stabilize, and the single ticket profit will continue to be repaired with the cost optimization.
② the self operated shipping company helps Yuantong's internationalization path and opens up long-term growth space: Yuantong, which has self operated freight shipping company and international freight forwarding resources, has preliminarily completed the layout of international express delivery. With the blessing of cross-border e-commerce logistics, one of the strongest dividends at present, Yuantong is expected to rely on its own trunk transport capacity resources to deeply cultivate core routes, build competitive advantages in cross-border logistics tracks and open up long-term growth space.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) 2021 to 2023 will be 44.587 billion yuan, 53.795 billion yuan and 60.681 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.160 billion yuan, 3.273 billion yuan and 4.380 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 26.48, 17.48 and 13.06 million yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Restart the price war; Management improvement is less than expected; Cost control is less than expected; Franchisee's position explosion; Air freight rate down; Uncertainty of overseas market expansion
