\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 905-1005 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 28% – 42%, exceeding the market expectation. The company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138.44% – 147.40%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is RMB 905-1.005 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 92-113% and a month-on-month increase of 28% – 42%, exceeding the market expectation. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 2.56-2.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158.15% – 168.25%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 929-1.029 billion in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 44% – 60%.
In 2021q4, the company’s diaphragm volume rose at the same time, exceeding market expectations. We expect the company’s 2021q4 diaphragm production to be about 1 billion square meters, an increase of about 20% month on month, and the new production capacity will be released smoothly. Considering that the company’s Q3 production is about 50 million square meters, the revenue is recognized in Q4. Q4 actually confirms 1.05 billion square meters +, with a month on month ratio of + 30%. The company expects to ship 3 billion square meters + in the whole year, more than doubling year-on-year. In the whole year, overseas customers account for 25% – 30% of the shipment, and coated diaphragm accounts for about 30% of the shipment. In terms of profitability, we expect that the single flat return profit of Q4 diaphragm to the parent company is nearly 0.9 yuan / flat, with a month on month increase of about 5%. Benefiting from the shortage of diaphragm capacity, the price rise of some products of the company is further reflected in Q4, the superimposed Online coating capacity is gradually implemented, the coating proportion of the company is improved and the customer structure is improved, and the volume and profit of the company rise together, exceeding the market expectation. Q4 company’s traditional business is expected to contribute 300 million yuan + revenue and net profit of 30 million yuan +, which is basically the same month on month.
The company takes the lead in capacity expansion, production scheduling continues to rise, and maintains a high growth rate in 2022. In 2022, the industry’s supply exceeds demand, the industry’s capacity utilization remains high, the company’s capacity expansion speed is leading, and the production scheduling continues to rise. By the end of 2021, the monthly production scheduling is nearly 400 million square meters, full production and full sales; The company expects to add 25 lines in 2022, and we expect the production capacity of parent coil to reach about 7.5 billion square meters by the end of 2022; Considering the accelerated release of the company’s production capacity, the annual shipment in 2022 was revised up to about 5.5 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. In terms of customers, we expect that the demand for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will more than double in 2022, and the increase of overseas customers LG and new North American customers is also obvious. We expect that the proportion of overseas customers in shipments will basically maintain 25-30% in 2022.
The battery factory accelerated to lock the diaphragm capacity, the diaphragm industry was in short supply, and the profitability increased steadily. As the expansion of diaphragm manufacturers is limited by the capacity of imported equipment and the industry is in short supply, the battery factory has increased the layout of diaphragm industry. Previously, Yiwei and Enjie announced that they planned to build a 1.6 billion flat base film and coating production line in Jingmen and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) increase cooperation with Enjie. The company locks in the capacity of the equipment supplier Japan steel making Institute, which corresponds to the capacity expansion of 25-30 lines every year. Superimposed steel making Institute starts small-scale production expansion. The company’s capacity expansion is accelerated and the expansion speed is ahead of its peers. We expect to ship about 5.5 billion square meters in 2022, 80% year-on-year +. Superimposed on the price increase of some customers under tight supply and demand, the company’s online coating is implemented and the coating proportion is increased, The product structure is optimized, and the single average profit is expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the accelerated implementation of the company’s production capacity, shipment and profit exceeding expectations, the net profit attributable to the parent company of our previous repair company from 2021 to 2023 reached RMB 2.706/50.06/7.034 billion (the original forecast was RMB 2.51/43.9/6.08 billion), an increase of 143% / 85% / 41%, and the corresponding PE was 76 / 41 / 29x respectively, giving 60xpe in 2022 and the corresponding target price of RMB 336.6. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected
