\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 6.3 billion yuan – 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23% – 27%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is RMB 1.9 billion-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21% – 34%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses is RMB 1.9 billion-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22% – 35%; It is expected that the revenue growth of special a + products will exceed 35%, and the revenue proportion will increase to about 65%.
In the 21st year, the performance grew steadily, and the profit margin may rise. According to the performance forecast, the company’s performance will grow steadily in 2021. According to the calculation of the median value of the forecast increase, it is expected that the profit growth rate will be faster than the income, the continuous improvement of the company’s product structure, the realization of scale effect of expenses and other factors may promote the company’s profit margin upward.
The product structure has been steadily improved and the expansion outside the province has been steadily promoted. In the first three quarters, the revenue of special a + products was 3.54 billion yuan, yoy + 38.4%, accounting for 66.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5pct. According to the performance forecast, the revenue growth rate of special a + products is expected to exceed 35% in 21 years, the revenue proportion will increase to about 65%, with a year-on-year increase of about 5pct, and the product structure will be steadily improved; The revenue of Jiangsu Province increased by 26% in the first three quarters, of which the revenue of Huai’an / Nanjing / Yancheng / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Huaihai increased by 20% / 21% / 15% / 40% / 33% / 52% respectively. The strategic markets in southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu maintained good growth, and there was still much room for subsidence in the north and permeability improvement in the south of the province; In the first three quarters, the revenue outside the province increased by 37%, accounting for 7.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5pct, and the expansion outside the province was steadily promoted.
Deepen the four major campaigns around 13455 in 2022. According to the disclosure of the Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) 2022 development conference, the company defines the 13445 marketing policy in 2022: 1. It refers to focusing on improving quality and focusing on a new leap forward. 3 refers to the three modernizations strategy, highlighting differentiation, building core competitiveness, striving for high-end, seizing new competitive tracks, speeding up full flower, and playing a breakthrough outside the province. 4 refers to industry confidence, brand confidence, quality confidence and development confidence. 4 refers to deepening the four campaigns: 1) unswervingly, strive to improve the potential energy of V9 brand, promote supremacy, sell business, and have V9 first and then V series; 2) Improve quality and expand coverage, continue to strengthen the basic market of opening system, enlarge the popularity of brand reputation, improve the control and profit sharing system, and continue to promote regional intensive cultivation; 3) Highlight characteristics and strengthen Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation effect; 4) Take multiple measures at the same time, accelerate the market breakthrough of plates outside the province, coordinate the layout of dual brands, build diversified plates, and cultivate innovative new consumption. 5 refers to strengthening the five guarantees, upgrading the marketing organization (strengthening V9 business unit, establishing Guoyuan Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) business unit and Gaogou sales company), increasing market investment, deepening process reform, implementing the business excellence plan and improving the incentive mechanism. We believe that 13455 marketing policy helps the company strengthen the “brand + channel” two wheel drive strategy and achieve high-quality development.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance grew steadily in 2021, the proportion of special a + products increased, and the product structure continued to improve. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.47/9.7 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.97/25.3/3.2 billion respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 33 / 26 / 20x respectively. Refer to the average p / E of the regional leaders of Suzhou wine and Huizhou wine in 2022, which is about 29x (according to the unanimous expectation of wind), Give the target price of 58.3 yuan and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) economic fluctuations exceed expectations, affect high-end demand and squeeze V-series and other growth space; 2) The intensified competition in the province has caused the dynamic sales of leading products to be less than expected and the price is unbalanced; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
