\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event overview: according to the sales data of December 2021 released by the company, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the sales volume of cars in December was 233700, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.77% / month on month increase of + 4.25%.
The sales volume of trumpchi + AIAN “Gemini” is strong, exceeding the expected production and sales target. In December, GAC motor sold 32200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 2.18% / month on month decrease of – 9.62%; The annual cumulative sales exceeded 320000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 10.3%. In terms of models, since the listing of GAC motor shadow leopard, the average monthly orders and monthly sales have exceeded 10000; M8 has won the independent luxury MPV pin crown for 26 consecutive months; The hot sales of gs4plus, gs8 and other newer models boosted the strong growth of trumpchi. In December, GAC ea\’an sold 16700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119% / month on month increase of + 14.5%. The sales volume exceeded 10000 for eight consecutive months. In 2021, the annual cumulative sales volume was 123700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119%, exceeding the annual target of 100000 vehicles. On January 1, 2022, aionsplus, which supports fast charging, was officially launched. On January 5, aionlxplus, which is equipped with three lidars and has a range of 1008km, was officially launched. Fast charging + long-range models are expected to drive the continuous upward sales of e\’an electric vehicles. With the high-end and intelligent upgrading of “Gemini”, GAC is expected to usher in a new situation of simultaneous increase in volume and price.
The shortage of cores in Liangtian is alleviated, the product cycle is strengthened, and the position of “ballast stone” is stabilized. In December, guangben sold 78400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 3.54% / month on month increase of + 0.89%, of which accord / Binzhi contributed 20500 / 18100 vehicles respectively; The annual cumulative sales volume was 780300 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 3.17%. In December, Guangfeng sold 98500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 36.54% / month on month increase of + 15.91%, of which Camry / leiling / willanda / Highlander contributed 2.72/2.19/1.67/10800 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 54.05% / + 1.25% / 53.95% / + 73.01%; The annual cumulative sales volume was 828000, a year-on-year increase of + 8.23%. In terms of models, Liangtian has entered a new round of product launch cycle. Guangben’s “civic sister car” model has been listed for two weeks, with orders breaking 10000, and Guangfeng luxury MPV Saina is hot. In the future, with guangben’s Electric Vehicle E: NP1, Guangfeng’s fenglanda and the new Camry listed one after another, Liangtian is expected to start an upward sales cycle. In terms of production capacity, Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 “new energy vehicles” (line 4) and Guangfeng’s tnga series engine construction project were started on schedule. Guangben’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles was also approved to solve the production bottleneck for the introduction of more new products in the future.
The mixed reform of Ethiopia and Angola is imminent, which is expected to drive the reconstruction of the company’s valuation system. After the reorganization, ea\’an was endowed with both capital and technology, realized the integration of “production, marketing and research”, and further strengthened its comprehensive competitiveness. According to the company’s announcement, ai\’an will comprehensively promote employee stock ownership and round a financing in the future, and choose opportunities to seek listing. The mixed reform is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of ai\’an. In terms of production capacity, the first plant in ea\’an is expected to expand to 200000 vehicles / year in February this year, and the second plant is expected to have a production capacity of 200000 vehicles / year, which is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of this year. In 2022 / 2023, the annual production capacity of ea\’an will reach 200000 / 400000 vehicles. The expansion of production will ensure the receipt of orders and support the upward sales. In 2022, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) will continue to make efforts in the field of intelligent network connected new energy vehicles and fully challenge the goal of year-on-year growth of vehicle production and sales by 15% in 2022. The strong rise of independent “Gemini” has driven the company’s profitability to continue to rise. The mixed reform of Egypt and Angola is expected to reconstruct the company’s valuation system.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.234/89.41/10.933 billion respectively, corresponding to 24 / 17 / 14 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company grasps the opportunity of the rise of the new energy market and takes multiple measures in technology and system. The independent rise is expected to become a new growth point of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the chip supply is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.