\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express
In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 285.05 billion yuan (Unaudited, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.
Comments: positive growth in sales, steady improvement in revenue, decline in gross profit margin of carry over projects, resulting in pressure on profits, and stable financial indicators
1) the sales volume will achieve positive growth in 2021, and the land acquisition unit price will be optimized. In 2021, the company achieved a total contracted amount of 534.93 billion yuan and a contracted area of 33.33 million m3, an increase of 6.4% and a decrease of 2.2% respectively year-on-year; The corresponding average sales price was 16049.4 yuan / flat, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The company's residential products enjoy a certain market premium, and a good reputation of central enterprises is expected to ensure the company's future sales performance.
In 2021, the company added 27.223 million m3 of land reserves, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%; The corresponding investment was 185.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%; The unit price of land acquisition is about 6820.7 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, which is conducive to the recovery of the company's future profitability.
2) the revenue increased steadily, and the profit was under pressure due to the decline of gross profit margin of carried forward projects. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 285.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The company's operating profit margin was about 17.4%, down 4pct year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. In 2021, the company's revenue increased to a certain extent, mainly due to the accelerated delivery of the company's sold real estate projects. However, as the high land price projects entered the settlement period, the company's profit space continued to decline along with the industry trend. At present, the real estate industry is gradually changing from financial industry to manufacturing industry, and the high leverage dividend is gradually disappearing. The cost advantage, brand barrier and blood recovery ability will become the key for real estate enterprises to build their core competitiveness in the future. As a high-quality central enterprise, the company is expected to further improve its market share under the Matthew effect.
3) financial indicators remain stable. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's net assets were 308.93 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of about 67.6%, an asset liability ratio of about 77.9%, an asset liability ratio of about 65.6%, and a stable and reasonable asset liability structure. In addition, the company's monetary capital in hand is 132.11 billion yuan, the cash short-term debt ratio is about 2.3 times, and the short-term solvency is strong.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: affected by the continuous decline of industry profit space, we lowered the company's forecast net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 27.58 billion yuan (down 10.6%), 28.86 billion yuan (down 15.1%) and 30.514 billion yuan (down 20.4%); The current share price corresponds to the PE valuation of 7.1 / 6.8 / 6.5 times from 2021 to 2023. At present, the company's share price fluctuates slightly under the influence of the market environment, but on the whole, it still has long-term competitiveness. The company's performance is growing steadily, its profitability is expected to be repaired under the accelerated liquidation of the industry, and the business scale of the two wings continues to expand. It is optimistic about the future development space of the company as an industry leader and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the severity and duration of regulation policies in the real estate industry may exceed expectations; Sales progress is limited by bank loan concentration management or less than expected; The project construction and settlement progress may be less than expected.
