\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) (300772)
Performance significantly exceeds market expectations; The annual performance was 430-550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 149% ~ 218%
The company announced that in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 430 million ~ 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 149% ~ 218%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 420 ~ 540 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 206% ~ 295%.
In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 ~ 290 million yuan in a single quarter, and the net profit center was 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 118% and a month-on-month increase of 79%. According to our calculation, the net interest rate of Q4 in a single quarter reached 3.5%, up 0.03pct month on month and 1PCT year-on-year.
The increase in net interest rate is mainly driven by the expansion of income cost scissors and scale effect
1) according to the rhythm of revenue recognition of wind turbines, the main revenue recognized by the company in 2021 is the high price orders signed in 2019 / 2020. After overland wind power rush installation in 2021, there is a certain price reduction of parts, and the widening scissors difference between revenue and cost leads to the increase of gross profit margin, which drives the increase of net profit margin.
2) in the first half of 2021, the newly signed orders reached a record high of about 8GW, and the cumulative orders on hand were about 12gw; In the first three quarters, the revenue was about 8.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The scale effect has led to the continuous improvement of net interest rate.
The reserves of large MW wind turbines are abundant, and the market share of new installed capacity of Chinese main engine plants has increased rapidly
The company and its predecessor have been deeply engaged in the field of new energy for more than 40 years. In the first half of 2021, the company completed the project based on 3 XMW、4. XMW、5. XMW、6. Design and development of more than 10 complete machine products on xmw platform; In line with the trend of large-scale units, China's market share ranked second and entered the first echelon in the first half of 2021. From 2017 to 2020, the company's market share in China steadily increased from 4% to 7%, ranking fifth, significantly narrowing the gap with the head.
The "dual sea strategy" has been promoted rapidly, and R & D expenses have increased rapidly, laying the foundation for medium and long-term growth
In April 2021, the first 7mw unit of "Haifeng series" of the company was officially offline; In September, the 9mw harrier platform wd225-9000 platform resistant offshore unit was released, and it is expected that it can be delivered in batches in 2022; In 2020, the company won the bid for four projects in Vietnam, totaling 169mw. In June 2021, the company signed the first batch order contract for overseas offshore units. The company maintained 3.5% of its revenue to invest in R & D, laying the foundation for medium and long-term growth.
Benefiting from the large-scale units and the reduction of hourly power cost, the new installed capacity demand of wind power in the 14th five year plan is expected to exceed expectations
With the large-scale units and the rapid decline in the cost of onshore wind power, combined with the total wind and solar installation target of more than 1200gw in the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 of the State Council, it is estimated that the average annual new installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan can reach 59gw; "Replacing small with large and wind power to the countryside" may bring an annual incremental demand of 10-20gw.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 500 / 700 / 840 million, with a year-on-year increase of 188% / 41% / 19% and PE of 27 / 19 / 16 times. Considering the company's sufficient R & D and reserves on large MW models and the smooth promotion of the dual sea strategy, it is expected that the company's market share will be further improved. Maintain the "buy" rating. Risk tips: 1) price fluctuation of parts; 2) The promotion of wind power policy was less than expected
