\u3000\u3000 By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (300146)
VDS track is excellent, and its scale is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025. (1) Broad market space. At present, China is the second largest VDS market in the world, and the market scale is expected to reach 235.2 billion yuan in 2025. (2) Low market concentration. At present, Cr5 market in China's VDS market accounts for only about 30%. As a leading enterprise, the company has great room to improve its market share. (3) The penetration rate of VDS products is low. At present, the VDS penetration rate of China at all ages is 10% - 30%, which still lags behind that of European and American countries, with good growth. In the future, the acceptance of VDS products by all age groups will be improved to varying degrees, and the penetration rate has room for growth.
The product matrix is perfect, and the main brands and large single products work together. Star + brand, rich brand matrix. On the basis of the main brand " By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) ", the company has actively expanded its subdivided fields and successively launched its own brands, such as joint care brand "jianliduo", professional eye health and nutrition brand "jianshijia", sports nutrition brand "jianleduo", professional pregnant and infant nutrition brand "natural doctor", liver care brand "jianganshi", Through the acquisition of overseas brands such as "pentavite", a brand of nutritional supplements for infants and children, and "life space", a leading brand of probiotics in Australia, the company continues to build and enrich the company's brand matrix and enhance brand value. In 2020, the company will take "4 + 2 + 1" as the strategy, launch multiple varieties and launch the whole VDS business. Specifically, jianliduo + life space mainly promotes large single products, and jianshijia + liver protection products are reserve large single products; Protein powder + multi vitamin mineral tablets as the main brand image products; Bovine Colostrum Plus Calcium chewable tablets are star products. In addition, the company also has a variety of product reserves, and the product line has a rich accumulation.
Raise funds to expand production capacity and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels work together. Fund raising plans to expand production capacity and escort medium - and long-term development. In 2021, the company raised funds for Zhuhai Base phase V, Zhuhai production base phase IV expansion and Australia production base construction projects. After the phase IV expansion of Zhuhai production base and the phase V project of Zhuhai production base are completed, it is expected that the annual production capacity of 6.4 billion tablets will be added, which is + 84.75% compared with 2019, and the average annual compound growth rate is 11.93%; The annual production capacity of newly added soft capsules was 2.7 billion, which was + 58.91% compared with 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 8.03%. Offline regulatory policies are stable and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels work together. The e-commerce branding strategy promotes the rapid development of online channels. The growth rate of the company's online revenue is much higher than the overall growth rate, and the proportion of revenue increases year by year. In 2020, the company will comprehensively upgrade the dealer system, start the dealer fission plan, and build a new sales model suitable for the operation of multiple large single products. The company establishes an independent dealer system between main brands and large single products in VDS business.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leader in the VDS industry with a complete product line. It is expected that the offline channels will continue to grow steadily in the future and the online growth rate will remain high. At present, the company's valuation is equivalent to that of comparable companies. Considering the continuous production of new capacity and the leading position of the company, the company has good growth in the medium and long term, and the valuation is expected to be further improved. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize operating revenue of RMB 7.478/91.32/10.796 billion; The net profit attributable to the listed company is RMB 1.749/22.04/2.624 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.03/1.30/1.54, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 26 / 20 / 17 times. Referring to the 22-year average PE valuation level of other food industries, the company is given 26xpe for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 33.80 yuan.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, the expansion speed of offline channels is lower than expected, the cost rise is higher than expected, food safety problems, capacity expansion is lower than expected, etc.
