\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Event overview: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) released the production and sales data of December, and the sales volume of Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) December was 178000, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.3% / month on month increase of – 5.3%; The annual sales volume was 2.301 million, a year-on-year increase of + 14.8%. Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) the output in December was 203000, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.6% / month on month increase of – 8.0%; The annual output was 2.29 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 12.6%.
Independent brand: the inflection point of the model cycle was fulfilled, and the sales volume in 2021 improved significantly year-on-year. In December 2021, the sales volume of Chang’an autonomous (Chongqing Chang’an + Hebei Chang’an + Hefei Chang’an) was 82000, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.6% / month on month increase of – 12.6%, and the annual sales volume was 1.27 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.5%; In December, Chang’an produced 100000 vehicles independently, with a year-on-year increase of – 28.3% / month on month increase of – 12.6%. The annual output was 1244000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.0%. In 2021, the sales volume of Changan Chinese brand cars was 1.755 million, a year-on-year increase of + 16.7%; The sales volume of independent passenger cars was 120.4, a year-on-year increase of + 23.1%. Divided into key models, cs75 series / escape series / cs55 series / UNI series contributed 28 / 17 / 14 / 120000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9% / – 2.8% / + 27.4% / + 75.0%, of which the actual sales of the second generation cs55plus exceeded 20000 for three consecutive months and the cumulative orders exceeded 85000 for four months after listing; In 2021, the sales volume of the newly launched Benz e-star exceeded 70000. Chang’an Auchan / Kaicheng brand achieved sales of 228000 / 18000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.8% / + 13.0%. Auchan entered the top 10 auto brand sales in China in 2021.
Joint venture brand: Changan Ford’s performance is quickly repaired, and the launch of new cars is accelerated. Changan Mazda sold 7000 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year ratio of – 50.3% / month on month ratio of – 52.8%. The annual sales volume was 132000 vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 3.6%. In 2021, the annual production and sales of Changan Ford improved rapidly year-on-year and month on month. In December, the sales volume was 37000 vehicles, year-on-year + 18.5% / month on month + 27.4%, and the annual sales volume was 304000 vehicles, year-on-year + 20.3%. The “Ford China 2.0” strategy continues to be promoted. The recently launched cross-border suveovs is based on the FNV intelligent Internet architecture to create strong product power. The EVOS car version is expected to be listed at the Beijing auto show; In 2022, Changan Ford will continue to accelerate the launch of products and launch heavy new cars such as Mondeo, four cylinder fox, explorer and Ruijie. The large volume of new cars is expected to drive the steady repair of performance.
Electric Intelligence helps the company’s model cycle continue to rise, with both volume and price rising. In 2022, the company’s independent model cycle will start. 1) in terms of new vehicles, uni-kidd has been pre sold and is planned to be launched in February; Uni-v is expected to launch Q1 and plans to launch the blue whale hybrid version in the second half of the year; Auchan Z6 is expected to be listed in 2022q2; 2) In terms of new energy, avita 11, the first high-end intelligent pure electric medium-sized SUV, is expected to be mass produced and delivered in 2022q3; A158 and c385 based on Chang’an new energy pure electricity EPA platform are expected to be listed in June and July this year; 3) In terms of upgrading, the second generation cs75plus is planned to be pre sold in January and listed in February; Cs95 (modified) and Auchan X5 (modified) are planned to be listed in 2022h2. The company independently develops EPA pure electric platform, and epa0 (micro / small), epa1 (compact) and epa2 (medium and above) jointly form the SDA platform architecture. Based on the three architectures of CHN + SDA + ark, it is planned to launch 26 new intelligent electric vehicles within 5 years. The implementation of new energy products is accelerated, and high-end models help improve ASP.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.562/57.97/6.671 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 24 / 19 / 17 times respectively. The company makes efforts in both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles at the same time, and the transformation of products to high-end and intelligent is accelerated. The launch of uni series and CS series new models and the overall layout in the new energy field will become new performance growth points and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the chip supply is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
