\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Event overview. On January 10, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138.44% – 147.40%, exceeding our previous expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 2.57-2.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158.15% – 168.25%.
21q4 performed well. According to the median forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 955 million yuan, an increase of 102.3% and a ring increase of 35.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 987 million yuan, an increase of 128.9% and a ring increase of 53.1%. We expect 21q4 to ship more than 1 billion square meters, with a corresponding single average net profit of about 0.9 yuan, an increase of about 0.04 yuan month on month.
The diaphragm faucet rapidly expanded its production, increased its market share and consolidated its leading position. The company will ship about 3 billion square meters in 2021. The rapid expansion of production and strong downstream demand will bring full production and full sales. It is expected that the shipment will reach 4.5-5 billion square meters in 22 years and 6.5-7 billion square meters in 23 years. At present, the main downstream customers Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG, Panasonic, etc. the battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) locks the supply through advance payment, highlighting the company’s leading position. At the same time, the company locks in the supply of overseas core equipment, and the production capacity will be released beyond the industry average level in the next two years, which is expected to further improve the market share.
Profitability is expected to further improve. In terms of cost, full production and full sales bring scale effect, and the width and speed of the new production line continue to rise, resulting in cost reduction; In terms of price, under the tight supply and demand, the company increases the price of small customers and gives priority to shipping high value-added categories to achieve an upward average price; In terms of product structure, the company’s online coating will be constructed rapidly, and the proportion of coating is expected to increase rapidly.
Investment suggestion: considering the improvement of the company’s profitability and stable leading position, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 to RMB 2737, 4389 and 5982 million (previously RMB 2484, 3726 and 5093 million), with a same increase of 142%, 60% and 36%. The current stock price corresponds to 75, 47 and 34 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. With reference to the current CS new energy vehicle of 99 times pe-ttm (wind’s consistent profit expectation), considering that the company is the leader of lithium battery diaphragm, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the global demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Capacity expansion was slower than expected.
