\u3000\u3000 Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) (300487)
Event: the company issued an announcement on January 3, 2022 and recently received the contract signing notice of Jinhai lithium industry (Qinghai) Co., Ltd. on "10000 ton lithium carbonate EPC procurement project of Jinhai lithium industry (Qinghai)". The tentative total price of the project is RMB 456112400, accounting for 49.43% of the total audited operating revenue in 2020. The project is planned to complete all construction and installation on August 31, 2022, put the whole system into trial production on September 30, 2022, and put into operation on October 30, 2022.
After Zangger and Jintai signed a new order, the independent "adsorption method + membrane method" path was widely recognized. The 10000 ton lithium carbonate project of Jinhai lithium industry (Qinghai) won the bid this time is another large-scale industrialization project of lithium extraction from Salt Lake realized by the company's "adsorption method + membrane method" with independent intellectual property rights in Qinghai after Zangger and Jintai projects. The signing of the project shows that the "adsorption + membrane" salt lake lithium extraction path independently developed by the company has been widely recognized by downstream customers, which will help to further consolidate the market position of the company's salt lake lithium extraction business and have a positive impact on the development of the company's own resources and new energy business. At the same time, the 10000 ton lithium carbonate project is planned to complete the design, construction and commissioning training of the whole line, and the output of qualified products is planned to be completed within one year, which is an improvement of the company's independent intellectual property adsorbent and the whole line technology, and also verifies the advanced and mature technology path of the company.
The price of lithium carbonate is high, and the cost performance of lithium extraction from Salt Lake is prominent. With the popularity of new energy vehicles and the continuous improvement of penetration rate, the demand for lithium carbonate is increasing. According to the latest data of Antaike, as of January 6, 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded the 300000 yuan mark, reaching 311500 yuan / ton, a record high. At present, the production cost of lithium carbonate per ton for lithium extraction from Salt Lake by adsorption method can reach about 30000 yuan, which has obvious advantages compared with the cost of lithium extraction from ore method of about 180000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the cost performance of lithium extraction from Salt Lake by adsorption method is very high, and the growth certainty in the future is strong. As a leading enterprise in the industry of lithium extraction from Salt Lake by adsorption method, the company is also expected to make full profits.
Profit forecast: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of RMB 1.132 billion, RMB 1.452 billion and RMB 1.853 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and realize net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 313 million, RMB 420 million and RMB 530 million, corresponding to EPS of RMB 142 million, RMB 191 million and RMB 241 million respectively. Considering the huge growth of salt lake lithium extraction industry and the company's leading position in the industry, the company is given a PE valuation of 60-65 times in 2022, with a reasonable market value range of 25.2-27.3 billion yuan and a reasonable stock price range of 114.60-124.15 yuan, maintaining the company's "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the progress of lithium extraction in Salt Lake is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the project is put into operation less than expected.
