\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
Event: Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) released the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be RMB 6.3-6.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23% - 27%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21% - 34%. Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company, with a year-on-year increase of 22% - 35%. According to the median performance forecast, it is estimated that the revenue of 21q4 is RMB 1.065 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 301 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%.
In 2021, the product structure will continue to be optimized and the market momentum in the province will continue. 1) Special a + products maintain a high growth. It is expected that the annual revenue of 2021 will increase by more than 35%, accounting for about 65% of the company's revenue (the revenue of special a + products will account for about 60% in 2020). The upgrading and upgrading of core single product SIFO is relatively smooth. It is estimated that the sales of SIFO and folio will increase by 30% in 21 years. SIFO and folio still contribute to the main revenue of Guoyuan brand. V series is mainly V3 and V9. It is estimated that the sales proportion in 21 years will increase to about 10% (the revenue proportion in 2020 will be about 5%), and it is estimated that it will double under the low base. Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) the cultivation of brand strategic new products D20 / d30 has achieved remarkable results, and the revenue in the first three quarters increased by 235% year-on-year. 2) From the perspective of regional layout, the traditional market potential continues. Nanjing region has completed the annual target ahead of schedule. The sales revenue of its main market Huai\'an and high growth benchmark Xuzhou market in the first three quarters has increased by 20% / 51.1% year-on-year respectively. The year-on-year growth of Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu regions has exceeded 30%. Weak markets such as Suqian and Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) have increased significantly, The year-on-year growth rate of "2 + 5" key markets outside the province was also more than 35%.
The growth plan for 2022 is relatively positive. V series improves the brand potential energy and K series ensures the basic market. 1) V series is the focus of cultivation and V9 focuses on leading the brand image. In the past 21 years, the company has invested more resources in V9 to cultivate consumers. In terms of region, except Nanjing, the company has established Southern Jiangsu with high consumption structure in the province as the strategic plate, and carried out dot layout around the surrounding high-speed cities outside the province. At the end of December, the company announced the establishment of V99 alliance to cooperate with high-quality dealers to play a benchmarking role, V3 undertakes the upward upgrading of four development projects, occupying the price band of 600-700 yuan in the province. It is expected that the volume rhythm is faster than V9. 2) K is the basic price of the company. The price of 400-500 yuan is still the secondary high-end mainstream price in the province. The transaction price of four opening is 450 yuan / bottle. The self ordering rate of consumers is high. The capacity expansion space of the price belt where the counter opening is located is relatively small, and the subsequent growth is expected to be stable. 3) Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand is mainly D20 / 30, focusing on the development of wedding banquet market. In addition, the market outside the province continues to be deployed around the surrounding plates and for key provinces and cities.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the recent channel feedback, the company's moving sales continued a steady rhythm, the dealer's inventory and turnover maintained a benign level, the fourth opening price was stable, and it is estimated that a good start will be achieved in 2022. At present, the company accounts for about 15% of the market in the province. The subsequent single product growth, weak market breakthrough and channel sinking will help to further improve the market share and support the company to achieve the revenue target of 10 billion. In addition, the company announced the completion of share repurchase at the end of November 2021, with a total of 7.7 million shares repurchased, accounting for 0.61% of the total share capital. After that, equity incentive is expected to be successfully implemented, which is expected to catalyze the valuation level while providing long-term development momentum. Maintain the net profit forecast of 2021-23 to be RMB 2.028/2.453/2.947 billion, the corresponding EPS is RMB 1.62/1.96/2.35, the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 32 / 26 / 22 times, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of V series and Sikai are less than expected, and the market competition in the province is intensified.
