\u3000\u3000 Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (300662)
HR overall solution provider. Starting from the medium and high-end talent search business, the company has gradually formed an overall human resources solution service provider focusing on flexible employment, medium and high-end talent search and recruitment process outsourcing. By the end of June 21, it had 114 branches in 7 countries, serving more than 20 subdivided industries and fields, more than 300 profit centers, more than 2800 professional consultants and technicians and more than 5300 paying customers.
Flexible employment space is huge. China’s flexible employment is still in the primary stage of development. In 19 years, the penetration rate of China’s flexible employment was about 1%, which is still at a low level compared with about 10% in the UK and about 4% in Japan, with broad development space. The main driving factors of flexible employment: (1) it has the characteristics of “slow cycle” and adapts to China’s current economic environment; (2) The rapid development of the tertiary industry drives the demand for flexible employment; (3) Social security tax and other policies restrict labor dispatch, and part of the demand is transferred to flexible employment. The CAGR of flexible employment in 16 ~ 19 years is 45%, and we expect that the CAGR in 21 ~ 25 years is 21%.
Competitive advantage: one body, two wings, and science and technology empowerment: (1) flexible employment positions are positioned at the middle and high end, and the number of dispatched personnel is growing rapidly: at the end of 20, professional posts accounted for 42% of flexible employment outsourcing; From January to September of the year, 222000 outsourcing personnel were dispatched, with a year-on-year increase of 66.1%. 2) Enabling science and technology and radiating the long tail: build four technology driven talent service platforms, build a semi-automatic “back factory” model, and achieve phased results. China’s one belt, one road, and 3 international enterprises, the global delivery capacity: to follow the Chinese enterprises\’ “going global”, to build more than 300 international recruitment teams with “one belt and one road”, and to expand the global service network through mergers and acquisitions. (4) Customers are gradually enriched and candidate reserves are sufficient: the number of paying customers has reached 21% CAGR in 10 ~ 20 years, and the proportion of Chinese customers has gradually increased; As of March 21, more than 10 million candidate information had been accumulated.
Investment suggestion: the company is a leader in the human resources service industry. Flexible employment is developing rapidly, and the business of medium and high-end talent search and recruitment process outsourcing is growing steadily. It is expected to continue to benefit from the improvement of China’s flexible employment penetration in the medium and long term. At the same time, the company’s technology empowerment radiates long tail customers and aggregates resources, which is expected to improve the scale effect, reduce costs and increase efficiency. EPS is expected to be 1.28/1.66/2.08 yuan / share in 21 / 22 / 23, and the current stock price is estimated at 46 / 35 / 28x. Considering the leading position and compound growth rate of the company (CAGR of the company in 21-23 years is 27%, peg is 1.3, and average peg of comparable companies is 1.6), it is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of macroeconomic slowdown and repeated epidemic on medium and high-end talent search and recruitment process outsourcing. The number of employees dispatched for flexible employment is low, resulting in the expected income growth.
