\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
Event: the company announced that y]2021 is expected to achieve revenue of 6.3-6.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23% – 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21% – 34%.
Comments:
It will end smoothly in 2021, and the product structure will continue to be optimized. According to the announcement, we expect the company’s 21q4 revenue to be RMB 970-1.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% – 26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 200-400 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.6% – 58.4%. The 14th five year plan ended smoothly. Under the opportunities of secondary high-end capacity expansion and consumption upgrading, the company focused on the secondary high-end price band of more than 300 yuan and accelerated the further optimization of product structure. In 2021, the revenue of “special a + products (including tax factory guidance price of more than 300 yuan) increased by more than 35%, and the proportion increased from 60% in 2020 to about 65%. The implementation effect of V-series tackling difficulties and improving the opening system is outstanding. According to channel feedback, the revenue of V-series increased by about 120% year-on-year, accounting for about 10% of Guoyuan brands; Xinsikai has been introduced into the market since the end of May 21. At present, it has completed the replacement of 70-80% of the old products, realized the simultaneous rise of price and volume, and the card position is 400 + the mainstream price in the province.
Intensive cultivation in different areas within the province has been deepened and balanced, and breakthroughs outside the province have achieved initial results. The company’s market in the province is divided into 6 regions, 13 prefecture level cities and 74 offices, with growth in the first three quarters. Among them, the growth momentum of Huai\’an base market has not decreased, Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu have successfully entered the investment re purchase period, Nanjing has completed the annual target ahead of schedule, and the relatively weak Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) , Nantong and Suqian markets have also increased significantly. There are 20 dealers with tax sales of more than 100 million yuan in the province, and 6 new ones; There are more than 30 prefecture level cities with tax sales exceeding ten million outside the province, with 18 new ones. The breakthrough of “2 + 5” key sectors outside the province has achieved initial results, and the demand for nationalization is unswerving.
Establish V99 alliance and grasp the core policy of “13445”. In the early stage, it is composed of the first batch of core marketing points, such as the 20299 marketing points of the Soviet Union, which are jointly supported by the members of the Soviet Union in the formulation of marketing policies and exploration of marketing policies in the 20299 region. Through the innovation of platform mode, the company accelerated the promotion of high-end market layout and sought further breakthroughs in the V-series battle. In 2022, the company took “13445” as the marketing guideline, grasped the main line of “focusing on high quality and concentrating on new leaps”, followed the strategy of “differentiation, high-end and nationalization”, strengthened the confidence of “industry, brand, quality and development”, and deeply promoted the four campaigns of “V-series breakthrough, opening-up improvement, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) activation and breakthrough outside the province”, Strengthen the five guarantees of “upgrading marketing organization, increasing market investment, deepening process reform, implementing the business excellence plan and improving the incentive mechanism”, and continue to maintain the kinetic energy and potential energy of good market growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that the company is expected to achieve the goal of 10 billion yuan ahead of the 14th five year plan. With the community construction of manufacturers with one heart and one mind, expanding the market together and the further implementation of personnel incentive, the company will continue to strengthen the deep cultivation construction of the provincial market, accelerate the card size of V series at the price band of 600 yuan, and achieve high-quality and steady development. We expect the company’s diluted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.59 yuan, 2.02 yuan and 2.59 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: intensified competition in the province; Market development outside the province was less than expected
