\u3000\u3000 Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) (688687)
Investment logic
Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) is the exclusive and sophisticated Biopharma in the field of antiviral. In 2021, it was listed on the science and technology board, and has a deep layout in the areas of hepatitis C, hepatitis B, interferon, liver protection and so on.
From 2021 to 2030, the golden decade of rapid improvement of hepatitis C awareness and treatment rate. According to the guidelines for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C, there are about 10 million hepatitis C patients in China. Statistics in 2019 show that the diagnosis rate of HCV in China is 22.51% and the treatment rate is 3.49%. In 2021, the National Health Commission issued the action plan for eliminating the public health hazards of hepatitis C, which defined the goal of increasing the awareness rate by 20% and reaching the treatment rate of 80% by 2030.
Kailiwei, pan genotype domestic hepatitis C drug, drives the rapid growth of the company's performance. It is expected that Kaili will be the first domestic company to be listed in the national medical insurance catalogue with a short-term revenue of RMB 6.5 billion by the end of 2021 / 2020, and Kaili will be the first company to be listed in the national medical insurance catalogue with a revenue of RMB 6.5 billion.
The company has strong commercialization ability and is a relatively mature biopharma. The company has mature products in the field of anti-virus and liver protection, with an annual sales of about 800 million yuan. According to iqvia data, the market share of Kane Ganle in the segment market of the company has reached 65%, the market share of Jin Shuxi in the segment market has reached 45%, and the CAGR in recent five years has been 84%, which has verified the commercialization ability of the company.
Focus on anti-virus subdivided fields, with rich pipeline under research. The company's extensive layout of hepatitis B drug research and development, covering a number of targets and mechanisms that are expected to achieve the functional cure of hepatitis B, is expected to achieve the functional cure of hepatitis B in the future through the combination of self-developed drugs, and bring about leapfrog growth for the company's performance.
The company's IPO raised 1.1 billion yuan, which is intended to be used for new drug R & D, marketing network expansion and supplement working capital.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.11/14/1.8 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 0.9/1.3/150 billion respectively. Using DCF valuation method, assume wacc7 58%, with a sustainable growth rate of 1.5%. The company's valuation is 6.7 billion yuan and the target price is 39.23 yuan / share. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk of sales falling short of expectations, risk of procurement with volume, policy risk, risk of new drug R & D data and progress falling short of expectations, risk of loss of core technicians, risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
