\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
Event description
The company announced the pre increase announcement of performance in 2021. It is expected that the company will realize an operating revenue of 6.3-6.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 23% – 27%; The net profit attributable to the listed shareholders is expected to be RMB 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% – 2.1%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted will be RMB 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 22% – 35%.
Event comments
The performance forecast is close to the upper limit of the annual target, and the product structure is further optimized. In 2021, the revenue target is 5.9 billion yuan and strive for 6.6 billion yuan; The net profit target is 1.8 billion yuan and strive for 1.9 billion yuan. The company’s performance forecast for 2021 exceeded the lower limit of the annual target and approached the upper limit of the target, mainly due to the steady growth of the company’s product sales and the further optimization of the product structure. According to the median forecast, the company achieved a revenue of about 1.064 billion yuan in the single quarter of 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 14.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.78%. In 2021, the company seized opportunities for changing industries, highlighted the key points, focused on leading products, and further optimized the product mix. Especially, the sales of products of “special A+” products grew better (referring to the Baijiu factory with guidance price of more than 300 yuan). The revenue growth rate exceeded 35%, and the proportion of revenue increased to 65%.
The company has a clear development strategy and is expected to grow with high quality. According to the company’s 2022 development conference, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) on the basis of realizing the good start of the 14th five year plan, the marketing work in 2022 pays more attention to system planning, system operation and professional matching, is committed to positive innovation, works hard and creates a new situation of high-quality leapfrog development. We will do a good job in five aspects: 1) grasp “one main line” and take “focusing on high quality and concentrating on new leaps” as the main line; 2) Following the “three modernizations strategy”, differentiation, high-end and nationalization “three modernizations strategy” is Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) the strategic guiding principle during the 14th Five Year Plan period; 3) Enhance the “four confidence” to enhance industry confidence, brand confidence, quality confidence and development confidence respectively; 4) Deepen the “four campaigns”, including efforts to improve the potential energy of V9 brand, continue to strengthen the basic opening market, strengthen the effectiveness of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation, and accelerate the breakthrough of plate market outside the province; 5) Strengthen the “Five Guarantees”, including promoting the establishment of sub brand business departments, expanding brand communication, simplifying processes, clarifying rights and responsibilities, improving service support measures and optimizing team performance appraisal.
Investment advice
The performance forecast of the company in 2021 is close to the upper limit of the annual target. We believe that the company’s strategic objectives are clear. The company resolutely fought the “four major campaigns” to foster market growth momentum, expand market share, foster growth poles with the “V critical battle” of the national edge, consolidate the basic market with the “national margin system” and ” Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation war” to create large single products, expand the new world with the “sudden market war outside the province”, and promote sustained growth of enterprises. At the same time, with the gradual implementation of equity incentive, the vitality of the company is expected to be further released. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.929 billion, 2.349 billion and 2.832 billion, and the EPS will be 154 yuan, 187 yuan and 226 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 33 times, 27 times and 23 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
There are risks
Food safety risk, the risk that the price of high-end liquor will fall sharply due to the macroeconomic downturn, the epidemic development will exceed expectations, and the market competition risk in the province
