\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in December 2021: the sales volume in December totaled 178000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.3%, and the annual cumulative sales of 230500 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 14.8%; In December, the total output was 202800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.6%. The annual cumulative output was 2290100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
Lack of core affects the improvement of delivery on a month on month basis
The company sold 178019 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.3% and a month on month increase of – 5.3%. The output was 202839 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.6% and a month on month increase of – 8.0%. At present, the company’s inventory is at a low level. We judge that the decline in sales is mainly due to the lack of core, which affects the delivery, and it is difficult to quickly release the orders on hand. It is expected that the delivery of Q1 this year is expected to accelerate. By brand:
1) independent brands (Chongqing + Hefei two core bases): in December, the sales volume was 76267, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.5% and a month on month increase of – 16.1%. The company has independently ushered in the transformation and upgrading, and the popular products are expected to continue the popularity. Cs75 series exceeded 280000 vehicles in the whole year, and the second generation cs75 plus is expected to be launched in February this year; Cs55 series exceeded 140000 vehicles in the whole year, of which the second generation cs55 plus performed strongly after it was launched in September 2021, with an annual sales of 60000 vehicles. The popularity of Auchan X7 plus continued to increase after the modification in October, and the production capacity was in short supply; Uni series sold more than 120000 vehicles in the whole year. At present, the first uni-k IDD equipped with blue whale IDD hybrid system has been opened for pre-sale. This year, uni-v will also be introduced to expand the product matrix and drive the high-end upgrading of independent brands.
2) Changan Ford: the sales volume in December was 36875, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.50% and a month on month increase of + 27.4%. Ford continued to improve month on month, mainly due to the contribution of Lincoln brand. The annual sales volume of Chang’an Lincoln reached 89000 in 2021, maintaining a strong growth. In November 2021, the pre-sale of Lincoln Z was opened. The new car pricing range was 255000 ~ 342000 yuan, the vehicle size was 4982x1865x1485mm, and the wheelbase was 2930mm. It reached the standard of entry-level medium and large cars. It is expected to make a good performance in the market competition of benchmark models such as 3-Series, class C and A4L. In addition, Changan Ford’s first cross-border medium-sized SUV Ford EVOS was officially put on sale on November 19. Compared with the previous pre-sale, the new car added an entry-level technology version, with the price as low as 198800 yuan, which greatly reduced the threshold of car purchase by nearly 30000 yuan. We believe that Changan Ford brand maintains luxury configuration as a whole, but the strategic positioning trend of more people-friendly price is becoming clearer, or it may maintain rapid growth in the Chinese market dominated by additional purchase.
New energy sales increased and overseas exports accelerated
The company’s new energy sales increased significantly, and the annual overseas export exceeded 110000 vehicles. From January to November 2021, the company’s independent new energy vehicle sales exceeded 84000, with a significant year-on-year increase. The annual e-star cumulative sales exceeded 70000, which is expected to drive the positive conversion of independent fuel points in 2021. The company’s overseas layout accelerated, with an annual export of more than 110000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. The company’s exports are mainly from South America. At present, it is accelerating the layout of the Southeast Asian market and is expected to maintain rapid growth this year.
The new energy platform accelerates the output, and avita carries high-end products
Relying on the new EPA platform and high-end CHN platform, the company plans to launch more than 20 new intelligent electric products in the next five years. New energy “Shangri La” plans to build three new special electric vehicle platforms, epa0, epa1 and epa2, covering multiple levels and multiple products such as small, compact and medium-sized. The small car a158 and compact car c385 based on this platform are expected to be listed in q2-q3. Avita 11 based on high-end CHN platform will also realize the first batch of mass production and user delivery in Q3. In addition, the company’s blue whale IDD hybrid system will be gradually installed on existing fuel models, and the uni series will be equipped with PHEV version.
A new high-end brand created by Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) with Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750)
Vita was officially released in Shanghai in November 2021. At the meeting, avita’s development strategy was introduced for the first time and the brand’s first model avita 11 was unveiled. Avita emotional intelligent electric vehicle attaches great importance to the exploration of consumers’ real psychological demands and actively initiated user interaction, and actively explores the future oriented humanized travel technology brand. We believe that the intelligent relay and electric competition in the second half will greatly enhance the needs of end consumers in terms of user interaction, and avita’s high-end route has broad prospects.
Investment advice
The company’s own brand capacity is fully loaded, the scale effect is prominent, the joint venture brand benefits from the high growth of the luxury car market, the delivery of avita new cars is imminent, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the company’s endogenous profit creation ability and scientific and technological growth. We maintain the forecast: it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.865/114.494/125.943 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 45.78/56.64/6.946 billion yuan, the EPS will be 0.60/0.74/0.91 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 14.51 yuan / share on January 10, 2022, and the PE will be 24 / 20 / 16 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The iteration of independent brand models is not as expected; Ford’s strategic adjustment is less than expected; Mazda’s integration is not as expected; Avita brand development is not as expected.
