Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (April 11-april 15) were + 1.27% and – 0.62% respectively, ranking sixth and ninth respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by – 0.99%.
Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (April 11 to April 15), the cumulative growth of hotel catering, airport, tourism and scenic spots were + 7.11%, + 2.75%, – 3.29% respectively, ranking 4th, 18th and 62nd respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from April 9 to April 15, China reported 184490 local confirmed cases (including asymptomatic infections), mainly in Shanghai, Jilin, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Anhui, Hebei, Guangdong, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi and other places. 2) Global: from April 9 to April 15, there were about 5.93 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of – 23%; The number of deaths increased by 20797, a month on month increase of – 25%. As of April 15, 2022, there were about 502 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 6.21 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from April 9 to April 15, about 260000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, an increase of 18% month on month; There were 3692 new deaths, up 0.4% month on month. As of April 15, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States is about 82.3 million, and the cumulative death is about 1.02 million. 4) UK: from April 9 to April 15, about 200000 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly diagnosed in the UK, with a month on month decrease of 40%; There were 1652 new deaths, down 61% month on month. As of April 15, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK is about 21.92 million and the cumulative death is about 170000.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of April 15, the country has reported about 3.31 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 2.66 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from April 9 to April 15, with a month on month increase of 0.43%.
2) Global: according to the data of our world in data, as of April 15, about 11.45 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 65% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: low number of flights hovering
Industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from April 9 to April 15, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 3223, a year-on-year decrease of 76% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of – 44% and – 78% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 2%.
Secretary for aviation: from April 9 to April 15, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 291, 471, 298, 97, 24 and 105 respectively, with the average of – 15.5%, – 12.9%, – 4.8%, + 31.0%, + 11.5% and + 3.4% respectively.
Air China Limited(601111) 3 menstrual camp data: ask and RPK decreased by 63% and 70% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) 3 menstrual camp data: ask and RPK decreased by 62% and 69% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
China Southern Airlines 3 menstrual camp data: ask and RPK decreased by 56% and 62% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
Hainan Airlines 3 menstrual battalion data: ask and RPK decreased by 60% and 69% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 3 menstrual camp data: ask and RPK decreased by 48% and 60% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 3 menstrual camp data: ask and RPK decreased by 49% and 60% respectively year-on-year in 2021.
Airport: from April 9 to April 15, according to the flight control data, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Beijing Daxing and Shenzhen Bao’an were 214, 29, 4, 140, 121 and 284 respectively, up from – 46%, – 3%, – 24%, – 21%, – 18% and + 25% respectively last week Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) 3 menstrual camp data: the number of take-off and landing sorties decreased by 55% year-on-year in 2021, and the passenger throughput decreased by 77% year-on-year in 2021 and 87% year-on-year in 2019.
Duty free: the tax-free discount on China’s outlying islands increased slightly month on month, and Sanya duty-free stores resumed business this week
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from April 10 to April 16, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 32 and 132 respectively, with a month on week ratio of – 39% and + 4% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of – 91% and – 70% respectively in 2021; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 12396, with – 5% month on month and – 81% year-on-year
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and China free outlying islands increased slightly, and the tax-free discount intensity of Haifa control, China travel investment, China export service and Shenzhen free outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
3) since the store closed on April 2, Sanya duty-free stores have opened one after another this week. Sanya International duty-free City, China Service Sanya International Shopping Park and sea travel duty-free stores resumed business on April 11, 15 and 17 respectively.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : the performance is relatively stable under the advantage of low cost, which is expected to benefit from the first recovery of leisure tourism demand.
4) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
5) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
6) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β ， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
7) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : Junting Direct stores account for a high proportion, Junlan Resort Hotel accounts for a high proportion, the demand repair stage is expected to show high elasticity, and the medium-term scale is expected to show high growth rate.
8) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying island + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified
