\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 174% - 227% year-on-year, and the profitability was significantly repaired
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is RMB 1.046-1.246 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 174.7% - 227.2% and a month-on-month increase of 239.1% - 303.9%. The profitability of the company in the fourth quarter was significantly repaired year-on-year and month on month. The easing of the price war in the express industry led to the verification of the leading profit inflection point. Considering the freight rate of aviation and freight forwarding business, the change trend of oil price, the rise of express unit price caused by the improvement of competition pattern, the scale effect and the decline of single ticket cost caused by the rhythm change of e-commerce, we judge that the net profit of single volume express business of 21q4 company is between 0.13-0.17 yuan, which is verified by the inflection point of performance.
Digital transformation enables growth, customer classification and product stratification, and the future can be expected
In 2021, the company continued to promote the comprehensive digital transformation, strengthened the accurate control of various indicators such as the whole process duration, complaint rate, loss and damage of express through digital management tools, and improved the timeliness, service quality and customer experience of express. Tiktok is also moving forward. Since January 1, 2022, the "tier to reach" has been launched in January 1, 2022, including the jitter, customer steward (APP, dot com), and the single channel platform of rookie electronic side. The core competitiveness of the upgrade and precise delivery is anchored.
RMB 3.790 billion fixed increase of A-Shares was realized to further consolidate and consolidate the basic market
On December 2, 2021, the fixed increase of the company's A-Shares was implemented, with the issue price of RMB 14.04/share, the number of issued shares of 270 million and the fund-raising of RMB 3.790 billion. A total of 16 issuing objects were placed. After deducting the relevant issuance expenses, the funds raised in this non-public offering are intended to be used for the construction project of multi-functional network hub center, transportation capacity network improvement project, information system and data capacity improvement project and supplement working capital, which is conducive to further strengthening the core competitiveness of the company's express basic offer.
E-commerce express value repair has three levels and two stages, and the core profit repair has been gradually verified
Express value repair is divided into three levels of fundamentals, corresponding to two stages of market performance. Fundamental restoration can be divided into three levels: 1) gradual tightening of policy control, 2) price return to a reasonable range, and 3) bottom reversal of profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of policies, prices gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy control and price return, they are about to enter the most essential level of value restoration, that is, the level of profit restoration, and are optimistic about the certainty and flexibility of leading profit restoration.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that under the continuous strengthening of policy supervision, the competition of e-commerce express tends to be orderly and the leader will be over repaired, we raised the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) 2021 to 2023 to 2.109 billion yuan, 2.649 billion yuan and 3.528 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year rating of + 19.4%, + 25.6% and + 33.2% respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: loose policy supervision; The growth of e-commerce consumption slows down; The price war is repeated.
