Key investment points:
Market review: from April 11 to April 15, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 4.71% as a whole, ranking second among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 5.71 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by 0.44%, 7.69%, 6.46% and – 4.03% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index except the education sector. 18 listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five rising respectively Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) , up 17.62%, 15.00%, 10.80%, 10.71% and 8.40% respectively. There are 36 listed companies that have achieved negative returns, among which the top five listed companies are Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) , Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Dark Horse Technology Group Co.Ltd(300688) , with increases and decreases of – 10.56%, – 10.97%, – 12.05%, – 16.52% and – 18.35% respectively. As of April 15, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC consumer service industry was about 40.36 times, which was significantly higher than that of last week and 46.57 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 33.17 times, 111.67 times, 42.04 times and 51.79 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of April 15, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 22909 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.313 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 2.7361 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 145.39 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 58.62%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 117866 million doses.
Key industry news: (1) the epidemic situation in Sanya is slowing down. On April 11, the general secretary visited Sanya International duty-free City, which resumed business in the afternoon of that day. (2) In the first quarter of this year, Haikou customs supervised 14.72 billion yuan of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; The number of shopping items was 20.27 million, an increase of 14.2%; The per capita shopping amount was 8372 yuan, an increase of 10.2%. (3) The Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism further adjusted the relevant policies of suspending the deposit for tourism service quality. Travel agencies can suspend the deposit in full or pay it temporarily, and the time limit for making up the deposit is extended to March 31, 2023. (4) The China Tourism Research Institute predicts that the tourist flow in May will reach the highest value in the first half of the year.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, China’s sporadic epidemic maintained a high level, the prevention and control situation was severe and complex, and the performance forecast of many listed companies in consumer services in the first quarter was still in a state of loss. It is suggested to pay attention to the key scenic spot companies Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ) that are expected to benefit from the relief and tax reduction policies in the future, the hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), which benefit from the concept of catering and prefabricated dishes Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ( Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The development of vaccines and drugs is less than expected.
