\u3000\u3000 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) (300755)
Event: the company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 7.43-7.6 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 50.36% – 53.80%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 674-691 million, with a year-on-year increase of 80.61% – 85.16%.
Comments:
Revenue side: 21q4 increased by 15.7% – 29.1%, the number and quality of stores improved steadily, and the famous wine supply chain was continuously expanded. In 2021, the company expects to realize an operating revenue of RMB 7.43-7.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.36% – 53.80%. Quarterly, 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved revenue of RMB 2.35/16.0/2.02 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 81.7% / 49.9% / 53.1%. 21q4 is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.46-1.63 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7% – 29.1%. The main reasons for the company’s annual revenue growth are: 1) Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) fidelity chain brand effect continues to expand, and the concepts of “buying real wine to Huazhi” and “buying famous wine to Huazhi” have been further recognized by channels and consumers; 2) The company’s strategic layout has been steadily promoted, the marketing team has been continuously expanded, and the comprehensive marketing ability has been continuously improved; 3) The number and quality of direct supply terminal stores and Huazhi chain stores have been steadily improved, customer stickiness has been further improved, distribution capacity has been significantly improved, and sales revenue has increased significantly year-on-year; 4) The global famous wine supply chain has been continuously expanded, and the sales of customized fine wine and famous wine have increased significantly.
Profit side: 21q4 continues to maintain high growth and profitability continues to improve. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 674-691 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.61% – 85.16%, of which the impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit in 2021 is expected to be about 17.9 million yuan. On a quarterly basis, 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 191 / 176 / 215 million, with a year-on-year increase of 95.2% / 51.8% / 100.5%. 21q4 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 93-110 million, with a year-on-year increase of 76.2% – 108.5%. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 9.07% – 9.09%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.52-1.54pct. The company’s annual profit growth was mainly due to the continuous expansion of the global famous wine supply chain and the significant increase in the sales of customized fine wine and famous wine, which also made a great contribution to the profit.
The company’s core values: 1) the company’s standard products have developed steadily, the customized fine wine has continued to boost Huazhi’s channel expansion and structural optimization, the channel model has been continuously verified, and the efficiency of the wine circulation industry has been greatly improved. 2) the market recognition of customized boutique wine is improving continuously, and the customized products continue to push forward, helping the high-end Baijiu brand product line to be high-end. 3) layout short video, live broadcast business, spread wine culture, deepen consumer’s understanding of Baijiu, and help China to Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) full channel sales.
Investment suggestion: since 21 years, the performance has continued to exceed expectations. Under the “double hundred goals”, the high growth can be expected. From 20q4 to 21q3, Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) profit growth was 85.9% / 95.2% / 51.8% / 100.54% respectively, with continuous high growth. The company’s channel circulation model has been verified, and the achievement of 21q3 and Q4 performance goals is good. Under the new goals, the company’s model is expected to accelerate again. Therefore, we adjusted the company’s performance expectations for 21-22 years to be RMB 690 / 950 million respectively (the previous value is RMB 700 / 900 million), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 29x / 21x respectively, which is continuously recommended.
Risk tips: the risk of liquor price fluctuation, the risk of fake and shoddy liquor products, the store expansion does not meet the expectations, and the cooperation with liquor merchants does not meet the expectations
