Key investment points
Market Review
The auto sector fell 2.73%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.99% in the same period, and the auto industry lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.74 percentage points. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 15th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the midstream level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 5.39%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were – 2.96% / – 1.70% / – 2.42% / – 2.47% / – 3.23% respectively.
Market hot spot
In March, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high of 24.7%. In March, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 461000, with a month on month ratio of + 117% / + 42.3%, penetration rate of 24.7%, and a month on month ratio of + 3.1pct. In terms of sub enterprises, five new energy wholesale sales exceeded 20000 in March, and the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) / Tesla China / SAIC GM Wuling / Chery / GAC EA were 104338 / 65814 / 51157 / 21817 / 20317 respectively. Among the new forces, the sales volume of Xiaopeng / Nezha / ideal / Zero run exceeded 10000, 15414 / 12026 / 11034 / 10059 respectively, and 9985 Weilai cars were delivered.
FAW, BMW and velai have resumed production, and SAIC and Tesla will resume production one after another. Since March, the epidemic has spread in Jilin Province and Shanghai, and many car enterprises such as FAW, BMW, Tesla, SAIC and Weilai have stopped production one after another. This week, FAW resumed work in all five main engine plants in Changchun. FAW Hongqi Weishan factory, FAW Volkswagen and FAW Toyota completed the offline of the whole vehicle. FAW Pentium and Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) completed the commissioning of the production line and started production on April 17. BMW Brilliance Shenyang factory resumed single shift on April 13, and Weilai automobile resumed production on April 14 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) will start the pressure test of resumption of work and production on April 18, and is expected to resume production within next week. Tesla Shanghai plant is expected to resume single shift on April 18.
This week’s view: the horn of returning to work and production is sounded, and the national standing committee will promote automobile consumption
This week, the resumption of work tide of car enterprises began. Since April 11, according to the decision and deployment of “orderly promoting the resumption of work and production of enterprises and trying to minimize the impact of the epidemic” in Jilin Province and Changchun City, FAW has resumed work in all five main engine plants in Changchun, and Hongqi, Volkswagen, Toyota, Pentium and Jiefang have resumed production. BMW Brilliance Shenyang factory also resumed single shift production on April 13. Weilai automobile Hefei factory stopped production from April 9 to April 13, and production has resumed on April 14. On April 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology set up a “white list” of key enterprises for operation guarantee and transfer, concentrating resources to give priority to ensuring the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. The white list includes Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Tesla and supply chain. Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) will start the pressure test of resumption of work and production on April 18, and is expected to resume production next week. Tesla Shanghai plant is expected to resume single shift on April 18. The horn of returning to work and production in the automobile industry has sounded, but it should be noted that the status of returning to work and production is adjusted dynamically according to the epidemic situation. The main premise for promoting the return to work and production is to ensure the epidemic prevention and control, and strictly ensure that no positive cases are found in the plant area, which will not lead to the pressure of exporting epidemic cases outside the province. The national standing committee will promote automobile consumption. On April 13, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to promote consumption, and proposed to expand consumption in key areas and encourage large-scale consumption such as automobiles and household appliances. This national standing meeting proposed three directions to encourage automobile consumption: ① no new automobile purchase restriction measures in all regions, ② increase incremental indicators in purchase restriction cities, and ③ support the consumption of new energy vehicles. The core of these three directions is to promote automobile consumption, Especially new energy vehicles. In addition to the increased indicators of the easing of the purchase restriction urban policy, we expect the subsequent local governments to increase their support for the consumption of new energy vehicles, so as to help the recovery of automobile consumption after the epidemic.
The dark hour may have passed, the auto supply chain will restart + policy support for post epidemic consumption, and the sector may usher in repair. Since March, the epidemic situation in Jilin Province and Shanghai has had a great impact on the supply and demand of the automobile industry, but the worst time is probably over. Later, with the dynamic clearing of the epidemic situation and the resumption of work and production of the industrial chain, the production capacity utilization rate of most automobile enterprises at the supply level, especially traditional automobile enterprises, is low. In the second half of the year, the supply can be replenished through three shifts. The purchase restriction policy at the demand level is relaxed and the consumption promotion policy is on the way, Optimistic about the recovery of automobile consumption after the epidemic. Recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , and focus on ideal car, Xiaopeng car and Weilai car; Most of the parts and components are most likely to be focused on driving intelligence ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) 2 etc.) and localization of passenger car seats ( Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) etc.).
Investment strategy and key recommendations
In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) The intelligence is accelerated, and the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats. Passenger cars: mainly recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (H); It is suggested to pay attention to ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai.
Parts and components of the ” Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic eased less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
