Basic conclusion
The worst period of the epidemic has passed, and there are positive signals in road logistics and shipping. The current round of epidemic broke out in mid and late March, which significantly affected the operation of express logistics and Airlines Airport. In March, the business volume of national express service enterprises decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the business revenue decreased by 4.2% year-on-year; The transport capacity ask of listed airlines decreased by 42% ~ 75% compared with 2019, and the number of airport take-off and landing sorties decreased by 44% ~ 74% compared with 2019, with the decline expanding month on month. Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has dropped, and high-frequency data show that road logistics and shipping operations have improved. According to the data of Guojin digital lab, in the 16th week (4.11-4.17), the national truck logistics intensity was 11.96, with a month on month rise of 1.5%. After four consecutive weeks of decline, it showed a trend of stabilization and recovery, and the Guojin logistics index also showed a month on month improvement after several consecutive weeks of decline. On April 17, the average speed of ships sailing in the Yangtze River Delta was 4.87 knots, which has been increased for several consecutive days since April 13, reflecting the overall improvement of ship navigation in the Yangtze River Delta and the resumption of waterway transportation.
Resumption 2020: after the epidemic situation is controlled, logistics may recover quickly. After the number of new cases in a single day fell to single digits during the epidemic period in 2020, the traffic restrictions were gradually lifted and the logistics recovered rapidly. Once the closure measures are lifted, the highway logistics will recover rapidly: according to the Guojin digital lab, the truck logistics intensity index of Hubei Province showed a rapid decline and recovery process in early 2020. One week after the closure of Wuhan (1.31-2.6), the truck logistics intensity decreased to the lowest value of 1.06, only 11% in 2019; Since March 20, the control measures for the passage from Hubei Province except Wuhan have been lifted in an orderly manner, and the truck logistics intensity index has significantly recovered, reaching 6.42 from March 20 to March 26, returning to 47% in 2019; On April 8, Wuhan lifted the control measures for the passage from Wuhan to Hubei. From April 10 to April 16, the truck logistics intensity index reached 14.78, reaching the level of previous years. The express business recovered rapidly, and there was compensation: in March and April 2020, after the closure measures in other provinces and cities across the country and Hubei Province were lifted one after another, the express business quickly recovered to or even exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, showing great flexibility. According to the data of Guojin digital lab, the single volume of rookie online express also recovered rapidly in March 2020.
Dawn looms, looking forward to the rapid recovery of the logistics industry after the epidemic. The State Council and the Ministry of communications have issued relevant policies to promote the smooth traffic of freight vehicles in some areas by taking measures to control the traffic of freight vehicles layer by layer and across the board. On April 18, the national teleconference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain was held. It was proposed to issue a sufficient number of national unified passes, recognize the nucleic acid test results nationwide within 48 hours, implement the closed-loop management of “picking, walking and chasing”, and do not restrict access on the grounds of waiting for the nucleic acid results. Recently, Jilin and Shanghai, which are obviously affected by this round of epidemic, also issued policy guidelines for resumption of work and production. Referring to historical experience, the logistics industry will recover rapidly after the epidemic situation is controlled and the work is resumed.
Investment strategy: the epidemic does not change, long-term growth, pay attention to the head express company. At present, due to the interruption of express delivery and the delay of e-commerce delivery, the express business volume is expected to decline year-on-year in April. We believe that the demand for e-commerce consumption is still there. During the closure period, it may give birth to the purchase demand of consumer goods such as small household appliances. When the epidemic situation in China is under control and enters the traditional peak season in June, the suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released, the growth rate of express business is expected to reach more than 30%, and the express price is expected to rise. The long-term impact of the epidemic in China is limited, and express will return to the main track of growth. It is suggested to focus on Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, the risk of sharp rise in oil price, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate, the risk of price war exceeding the expected risk, and the risk of error or omission in data statistics.
