Event: in March, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; Business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. In the first quarter, the business volume of national express service enterprises totaled 24.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; Business income totaled 239.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%.
(2) four express delivery companies released 3-month business data (Yuantong and Shentong excluded the impact of changes in rookie settlement caliber):
[ S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ] in March, the company’s express logistics business revenue was 12.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%; The business volume was 803 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%; The single ticket revenue of express logistics business was 15.52 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%.
[ Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ] in March, the company’s express service revenue was 4.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.37%; The business volume was 1.582 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 4.35%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%.
[ Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ] in March, the company’s express product revenue was 3.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.68%; The business volume reached 1.417 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 5.06%; The single ticket income of express products was 2.40 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59%.
[ Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ] in March, the company’s express service revenue was 2.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.03%; The business volume was 987 million tickets, a year-on-year increase of 8.76%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.43 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.00%.
Business volume: the growth rate of the industry affected by the epidemic turned negative, the growth rate of Tongda department was in line with expectations, and the growth rate of SF was affected by the epidemic and product adjustment. In March, the growth rate of the express industry was – 3.2%. Affected by the epidemic in mid and late March, some cities were closed and controlled, and the roads were blocked, and the growth rate of industry demand turned negative. From the perspective of the company, the growth rate of parts volume in March: Yunda +4.4% (January February +30.7%), Yuantong +5.1% (January February +27.8%), Shentong +8.8% (January February +38.9%), SF -7.9% (January February +2%). (1) In March, the growth rate of accessible parts volume was in line with expectations (the growth rate of physical online shopping in March was about + 3%). E-commerce express delivery was significantly impacted by the epidemic in the middle and late days, but the performance of leading enterprises was still better than that of the industry; (2) In March, SF was affected by the closure of Yuhang middle transit and the suspension of some outlets across the country. In addition, the adjustment of product structure also brought about the impact of the base; (3) Looking forward to the future, the industry still had a negative year-on-year increase in early April (refer to the Qingming holiday industry – 12.8% year-on-year), but the policy emphasizes logistics supply and resumption of work and production. At the same time, we observe the continuous recovery of the throughput index of express distribution center. It is expected that the industry will enter a recovery period, the demand will be replenished, and the growth rate will gradually pick up.
Price: the year-on-year decline of each unit price narrowed, and the month on month improvement of Yunda unit price exceeded expectations. In March, the industrial unit price decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline maintained a narrowing trend. Prices of express delivery enterprises in March: SF + 2.24% year-on-year and + 0.52% month on month (up 0.08 yuan); Yuantong was + 6.59% year-on-year and – 7.69% month on month (down 0.20 yuan); Yunda was + 18.26% year on year and + 10.68% month on month (up 0.25 yuan); Shentong was + 8.00% year-on-year and -0.41% month on month (down 0.01 yuan). (1) Yuantong: the unit price fell month on month in March. We believe that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of light and small parts, and the price fluctuates slightly in the off-season; (2) Yunda: in March, the unit price increased by 0.25 yuan month on month, and the price improvement exceeded expectations. We believe that it may be due to the tightening of the headquarters’ price policy on franchisees, the increase of goods weight month on month, and the relatively low price base in February. (3) Shentong: the price performance is basically stable. (4) SF: the product structure was continuously optimized, and the unit price rebounded month on month in March. It is normal for the short-term epidemic situation to be superimposed on the price fluctuation in the off-season. We believe that the current trend of price stability in the industry is still in progress. At the same time, the prices in various grain producing areas gradually tend to be balanced, and the price ecology is more reasonable.
Main “grain producing areas”: the growth rate of pieces is obviously differentiated, and the performance of South China is better than the market. (1) Yiwu: the growth rate of parts volume in March was – 15.5%; The unit price was 3.1 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.1% (+ 0.33 yuan), which was basically the same month on month. (2) Guangzhou: the growth rate of parts volume in March was + 12.8%; The unit price was 7.3 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.5% (- 0.86 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 2.23% (- 0.17 yuan). (3) Jieyang: the growth rate of parts volume in March was + 11.4%; The unit price was 3.7 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 27.0% (- 1.35 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 3.9% (- 0.15 yuan). Yiwu’s short-term demand growth rate is weaker than the market, the terminal price was slightly adjusted in March, the balanced development of express and e-commerce, and the main line of high-quality express development remains unchanged; South China (except Shenzhen) is less affected by the epidemic, and the volume growth rate is better than the market. Pay attention to the filling of the subsequent price depression in South China.
In terms of market share, the share of leading cities increased steadily in March. In March, the business volume market shares of the four express delivery companies were: SF 9.40% (mom + 0.17pts), Yunda 18.52% (mom + 0.93pts), Shentong 11.56% (mom + 1.09pts) and Yuantong 16.59% (mom + 2.60pts). Overall, the market share of each company increased month on month in March, among which the share of Yuantong city increased significantly. We believe that it is mainly due to the difference of competitive strategies of each company.
Investment suggestion: in March, the express industry was seriously affected by the epidemic. In April, the express logistics industry continued to recover, and the logistics supply guarantee policy continued to work. We generally believe that the worst impact has passed, and the inflection point of the industry has emerged. A shares we recommend: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : firmly promote high-quality development, continuously improve service and fine management, and have greater performance flexibility with the upward movement of price center Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the company’s share keeps up with the leading Zhongtong, the unit price stabilizes and enjoys the performance repair dividend. US stocks are optimistic about Zhongtong express: its share remains the first in the industry, its management level lags behind its peers, which is reflected in its business advantages, and its profitability continues to lead its peers. At the same time, we recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : short-term operation adjustment in place, superposition of strict cost control, continuous improvement of the company’s performance, medium and long-term benefit timeliness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high configuration value.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; Price competition in the industry has intensified.
