Multiple factor disturbance does not change the upward trend of new energy vehicles
Since the beginning of 2022, factors such as the price increase of car enterprises' sales terminals, the spread of the epidemic and the continuous lack of core in car enterprises have disturbed the production and marketing pattern of new energy vehicles, and exacerbated market concerns and expectations. We believe that the above factors will indeed have a certain negative impact on the production and marketing pattern of new energy vehicles. However, considering the downstream customer structure, the efforts of vehicle enterprises to stabilize market expectations, the sustainability of government supporting policies, the upward power of new energy vehicle products and other factors, we believe that the new energy vehicle industry will maintain the trend of rapid increase in penetration, and the short-term trough will bring better opportunities for redistribution. From the perspective of investment rhythm, the stage with the greatest contradiction between supply and demand is about to pass, and the short term is a good layout period; As the demand side is better, the supply side of the industrial chain will be released faster in the second half of the year, and the growth environment will be better. We believe that we should pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: invest according to the level of barriers (batteries, lithium resources, diaphragms, negative electrodes, etc.), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , and other companies benefit; (b) Post cycle: companies such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) and others benefit from flexible investment according to the growth rate, such as energy storage, power exchange and other sectors; (c) New technology: invest according to the penetration rate, such as 4680, flat wire, etc. Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
Price increase, epidemic situation and lack of core disturbance are inevitable, but the overall impact may be limited, and the positive trend remains unchanged
The price increase will cause some target users of medium and low-end models to delay the purchase process. Under the pressure of upstream material cost, the increase of price increase frequency of car enterprises may further squeeze out some car purchase demand;
The spread of the epidemic has an impact on the production and marketing pattern at least from three aspects: the production of automobile enterprises, the turnover of supply chain, the passenger flow into stores and the expansion of channels;
The lack of core will still restrict the full release of the output of new energy vehicles, and the disturbance of the above factors is inevitable. However, we believe that considering the differentiation of downstream customer structure, the significant regional distribution structure of the epidemic, the policy guidelines for the resumption of work and production at the upper level, the efforts of the production and sales terminals of vehicle enterprises, the continuity of supporting policies, the continuous high oil price, the improvement of the product power of new energy vehicles and other factors, the overall impact of the above factors on the production and sales pattern of new energy vehicles may be limited and will not reverse the sales situation in 2022, Nor will it shake the long-term positive trend of the development of new energy vehicles.
The new energy vehicle market is expected to restore the balance between supply and demand of raw materials in the medium term, and the penetration rate will continue to increase in the long term
In the medium term, the upper design of ensuring supply and price stability will continue to advance, the new supply is expected to be released in an orderly manner, the price of raw materials is expected to maintain stability and fall, and the decline of upstream cost pressure will slow down the pace of price increase of motor car enterprises and curb the erosion of downstream demand; As the sales volume of new energy vehicles increases, the platform cost decreases, and the cost allocated to the vehicle plays a certain offset effect, so as to control the cost rise of new energy vehicles, maintain cost performance and gradually restore the market balance.
In the long run, after the subsidy has completely declined, the competition between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will completely become the competition of product power. The continuous improvement of the product power of intelligent driven new energy vehicles is expected to drive the continuous rise of new vehicle penetration. The main customer groups include urban white-collar first-time buyers and family additional buyers, and there is still a lot of room for users to explore; In terms of car ownership, new energy vehicles account for less than 3% of China's 307 million car ownership. The remaining replacement users will be a larger source of customers and have a broad market space.
Risk warning: the upstream cost pressure continues to be high, the customer acceptance is lower than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected
