Core view
Recent core ideas:
We firmly believe that the current is a good opportunity for the allocation of real estate stocks, and the excess return will continue to be deduced. From the perspective of game, the land is not hot and the market is not cold; From the perspective of value, the layout mode is improved, and the “rising tide and rising ship” brings the second round of rise. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Longhu group, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Sales continued downward trend
From January to March 2022, the total sales of commercial housing was 2965.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 22.7%; The total sales area was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 13.8%. From the single month value, the sales volume of commercial housing in March 2022 was – 26.2% year-on-year, down 6.9 percentage points from the previous value; The sales area was – 17.7% year-on-year, down 8.1 percentage points from the previous value.
Deterioration of investment and financing performance
The margin of development investment decreased. From January to march in 2022, the total investment in real estate development was 2776.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.7%. From the single month value, the completed investment in real estate development in March 2022 was – 2.4% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value. The decline in funds in place expanded. From January to March 2022, the total amount of funds paid in by real estate enterprises was 3815.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.6%. From the single month value, the funds in place of real estate enterprises in March 2022 were – 23.0% year-on-year, down 5.3 percentage points from the previous value.
The decline in construction and completion continued to expand
Construction continued to be weak. From January to March 2022, the newly constructed area totaled 298.38 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 17.5%. From the single month value, the newly started area in March 2022 was – 22.2% year-on-year, down 10.1 percentage points from the previous value. The margin of completion decreased significantly. From January to March 2022, the completed area totaled 169.29 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 11.5%. From the single month value, the completed area in March 2022 was – 15.5% year-on-year, down 5.7 percentage points from the previous value.
Important events:
① the central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, emphasizing the reasonable determination of the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate of commercial individual housing loans; ② The central bank said that banks in more than 100 cities across the country have cut mortgage interest rates independently; ③ The five major banks said that the repayment of individual housing loan customers affected by the epidemic can be postponed; ④ The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points; ⑤ Jiangsu Nanjing pre-sale funds supervision pilot uses bank guarantee to replace supervision funds; Nanjing Liuhe limited purchase relaxed, registered residence buyers can buy one suite. ⑦ Suzhou, Jiangsu relaxed the purchase and sale restrictions; ⑧ Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) optimize the operation scope of talent housing policy; ⑨ Teachers and staff in Nanning, Guangxi and talents staying in Yong enjoy the full subsidy of the deed tax on the first house of the family; ⑩ Anhui Huaibei issued a temporary preferential policy for house purchase, and the purchase of the first house can be rewarded with up to 60000 yuan; ⑪ Zhengzhou expanded the scope of subsidies for first-time house purchase to all undergraduates and junior college students; ⑫ Tianjin, Gansu Province, Zhejiang Lishui, Zhejiang Huzhou, Sichuan Ziyang and Fujian Nanping optimized the housing provident fund policy; ⑬ Chongqing supports new citizens’ real estate; ⑭ Kunming, Yunnan Province promotes the stabilization of land price and house price in the real estate market; ⑮ Yichang, Hubei province promotes the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate market; ⑯ Changsha closed the first round of centralized land supply, collecting 17.4 billion yuan without streaming auction.
Risk tips: 1. The policy is tightened more than expected; 2. The fundamentals of the industry went down more than expected; 3. Unexpected impact of credit risk events of real estate enterprises
