Event:
The operation of express industry in March and the data of express enterprises in March have been released.
Industry in March:
Volume: the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 8.54 billion tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%; The business volume of non local express delivery business was 7.341 billion tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 2.08%.
Price: the single ticket income of national express service enterprises was 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06% and a month on month increase of 0.79%; Among them, the single ticket income of remote express was 5.41 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.90% and a month on month increase of 0.77%.
In terms of stocks in March:
Volume: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) completed business volume of 1.417 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 5.06% Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) completed business volume of 1.582 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 4.35% Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) completed 987 million business tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76%, leading the industry.
Price: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) single ticket income was 2.48 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.11% and a month on month decrease of 6.77% Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) single ticket income was 2.59 yuan, up 18.26% year-on-year and 10.68% month on month Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket revenue was 2.56 yuan, up 13.78% year-on-year and down 1.16% month on month.
Key investment points:
Single ticket revenue improved year-on-year, and the stability of the pattern continued to be verified
In March 2022, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) single ticket revenue was 2.48 yuan, up 10.11% year-on-year, down 6.77% month on month. After excluding the impact of rookie wrapping business, single ticket revenue was 2.40 yuan, up 6.59% year-on-year Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) single ticket revenue was 2.59 yuan, an increase of 18.26% year-on-year and 10.68% month on month Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket income was 2.56 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.78% and a month on month decrease of 1.16%. After excluding the impact of rookie wrapping business, single ticket income was 2.43 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The differentiation of month on month growth of single ticket income is mainly due to factors such as single ticket cargo weight and customer structure adjustment, which has little impact on the profitability of enterprises. On a year-on-year basis, the single ticket revenue of each head express enterprise maintained positive growth, and the price rise logic remained unchanged.
The business volume is under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the demand rebound after the closure
Affected by the closure and control of the epidemic, the business volume completed by the national express industry decreased year-on-year in March 2022. During the Qingming Festival, the national postal express industry received 660 million parcels, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, an increase of 24.1% over the same period in 2020; 690 million parcels were delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% and an increase of 27.1% over the same period in 2020. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, although the business volume growth of each head enterprise fell back to the number of units, the business volume still maintained positive growth.
The decline in demand comes from the short-term interference of the epidemic. However, as the epidemic situation in core cities becomes clearer, the industry as a whole and leading enterprises are expected to benefit from the rapid recovery in demand brought by retaliatory consumption after the end of the epidemic.
The epidemic situation does not hinder the long-term logic of the sector and continues to recommend the e-commerce express industry
Looking back at the first quarter, the unit price of e-commerce express enterprises in the head was resilient, the overall year-on-year improvement trend remained unchanged, and the stability of the industry pattern was still continuously verified. At present, the e-commerce express industry has entered a new development stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. The development strategy of head enterprises has also changed from cost differentiation to income differentiation, paying more attention to the balance of service quality, operating profit and market share. The closure and control of the epidemic only affects the rhythm of the growth of express business volume, and does not change the trend of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the whole industry under pattern optimization. In the new development stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is much greater than the impact of business volume changes. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the gradual repair of cash flow and the continuous improvement of profitability in the e-commerce express industry under the support of the improved pattern.
Industry rating and investment strategy
At present, the industry is disturbed by the short-term variables of the epidemic, and the stock price has been adjusted periodically. However, the trend of optimizing the pattern of e-commerce express enterprises and raising roe remains unchanged, and we continue to be optimistic about the sector investment opportunities of e-commerce express industry. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
Key recommended stocks Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express-sw, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468)
Risk tips: the risk of aggravating the price war, the risk that the prosperity of the industry is less than expected, the risk of M & A caused by upstream and downstream integration, the risk caused by changes in regulatory policies, the risk of warehouse explosion of express franchisees, and the risk that the performance of recommended companies does not meet expectations
