Core view:
The performance of the first quarter may be under overall pressure and individual stocks may be divided
Recently, the head brokerage Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) disclosed the performance express of the first quarter of 2022, and the company’s revenue was 15.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 7.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%. Under the background of the increasing market concentration of head securities companies, the performance of head securities companies is still not optimistic. We expect that the performance of the securities industry in the first quarter of this year will be under overall pressure and individual stocks will be divided.
In terms of the industry, the performance may be under pressure as a whole: since this year, the performance of the secondary market has been depressed, the risk appetite of investors has been reduced, and the fund wait-and-see mood is strong. Q1 Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index all fell significantly, and the turnover increased slightly, with a total turnover of 58.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The main reason may be the increase of listed new shares and the increase of stock based turnover under the expansion of the overall market scale, but the range is limited, which is difficult to contribute to the performance increment of traditional brokerage business. In terms of consignment, due to the influence of the market, the scale of new fund issuance has decreased, and the marketing of securities companies is more difficult. This year, the newly issued shares of Q1 public funds decreased by more than 80% year-on-year. In addition, the overall operating revenue of the securities business department in Shenzhen in January was 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.5%, and the total profit was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of half. Among them, the number of profitable business departments decreased by nearly 100 compared with the same period last year. Brokerage business income is usually the business income of the first two branches of the securities industry (the other is self operated business). Under the pressure of fundamentals, it is difficult for brokerage business to have a bright performance in the first quarter.
In terms of individual stocks, differentiation is likely to occur: in addition to brokerage business, proprietary business is another major source of income for securities companies, mainly including equity / bond investment, derivatives trading, etc. In the context of the downward market shock this year, the investment and research capacity of different companies will be directly reflected in the performance difference of self operated business income. In addition, the derivatives business ability of head securities companies is stronger than that of small and medium-sized securities companies, and their profitability in terms of anti risk fluctuation and structural market is stronger. In addition, it is common for the sci-tech innovation board to break new shares and investors to abandon their purchases this year. The follow-up investment system makes securities companies actively or passively bear the risk of investment income. The different performance of IPO will directly affect the company’s performance and cause further performance differentiation.
Risk tip: the effect of policy implementation is less than expected or even tightened, liquidity is tightened, stock based turnover has fallen sharply, and the overall market downside risk.
