The International Monetary Fund IMF released its latest outlook for future economic growth last night. The world: reduce the economic growth forecast in 2022 from 4.4% to 3.6%, from 3.8% to 3.6% in 2023, the United States from 4.0% to 3.7% in 2022, from 2.6% to 2.3% in 2023, emerging and developing economies in Asia from 5.9% to 5.4% in 2022, from 5.8% to 5.6% in 2023, and Russia from 2.1% to 2.3% in 2023.
We define the growth rate of global crude oil demand / global GDP as the “elasticity coefficient of global crude oil demand / GDP”. The elasticity coefficient is between 0.25-0.90 from 2000 to 2019, and the 20-year average value is 0.52. In 2020, due to the excessive impact of the epidemic on the transportation field, the elasticity coefficient is as high as 2.38. In 2021, with the continuous repair of oil in transportation, chemical industry and other fields, the elasticity coefficient is reduced to 0.96.
Considering that 2022 is in the post epidemic repair stage, we expect the elasticity coefficient to be further reduced to about 0.7. According to the IMF’s forecast of global economic growth in 2022, from 4.4% to 3.6%, we expect the growth rate of global crude oil demand to decline from 3.08% to 2.52% in 2022, corresponding to the increase of crude oil demand in 2022 of 2.5 million barrels / day, down Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels / day.
Considering that the global economy will basically return to the pre epidemic level in 20232025 and the proportion of oil in the global energy consumption structure will gradually decline, we predict that the elasticity coefficient of crude oil demand / GDP will gradually fall below 0.5 in 20232025, lower than the central level in 20 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) . According to the IMF’s forecast of global economic growth in 2023, from 3.8% to 3.6%, we predict that the growth rate of global crude oil demand will decline from 1.9% to 1.8% in 2023, corresponding to the annual increase of crude oil demand of about 1.5 million barrels / day.
CNOOC: officially listed on Thursday, April 21, 2022.
The production capacity cycle has triggered great energy inflation, and we continue to be optimistic about the historic allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil. We believe that whether it is traditional oil and gas resources or American shale oil, capital expenditure is the main reason for limiting crude oil production. Considering that the global capital expenditure on crude oil is insufficient for a long time, the elasticity of global crude oil supply will decline. In the transformation of old and new energy sources, the demand for crude oil is still growing, and the world will face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years. The international oil price will usher in an upward turning point in 2022. In the medium and long term, the oil price will remain high for a long time, and the energy resources are expected to be in an upward cycle in the next 3-5 years. We will continue to be firmly optimistic about this round of energy inflation, Continue to be firmly optimistic about the historic allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil under the capacity cycle.
Risk factors: the risk of re spread of covid-19 epidemic in the world; New energy sources increase the risk of replacing traditional oil demand; Risk of OPEC + alliance modifying production plan; The risk that OPEC + oil producing countries have insufficient production capacity and the production rate is lower than expected; The United States lifted sanctions against Iran, and the risk of Iran’s crude oil returning to the market quickly; The risk of US policy adjustment on shale oil production, environmental protection and financing; Risk of global 2050 net zero emission policy adjustment.
