Key data points:
This week, the transaction area of new houses in 42 major cities decreased by 43% month on month, and the cumulative transaction area in 2022 decreased by 40% year-on-year. Beijing and Shanghai fell 30% and 51% month on month respectively. 1、 The cumulative transaction area of second and third tier cities decreased by 33%, 34% and 49% respectively year-on-year. The cumulative trading volume of Wuhu, Zhuhai, Hangzhou and Fuzhou decreased by 52%, 50%, 40% and 45% respectively in 2022.
As of April 8, the saleable area (inventory) of 13 major cities was flat month on month; The average decontamination cycle was 18 months, with an average month on month increase of 9%. The de chemical cycle of Shanghai and Guangzhou changed from 7 months and 20.1 months in the previous period to 9.2 months and 26.2 months respectively, with a month on month increase of 32% and 30% respectively.
This week, the construction area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 major cities fell by 25%. Qingyuan and Hangzhou decreased by 79% and 64% month on month respectively. In 2022, the cumulative transaction area decreased by 38% year-on-year. Shenzhen, Nanning and Dongguan decreased by 76%, 35% and 43% year-on-year respectively in 2022.
This week’s view:
This week, affected by the epidemic control in many places, new house transactions continued to decline month on month. The transaction area of new houses in the first, second and third tier cities fell synchronously month on month, and the transaction area of new houses in key cities fell sharply month on month. In terms of second-hand housing transactions, except for the increase in Qingdao, the transactions in other regions showed negative growth month on month, which jointly led to the decline in second-hand housing transactions in key cities during the week.
In terms of inventory, the cycle of decommissioning in key cities increased slightly, among which the supply of commercial housing in Guangzhou increased and the average cycle of decommissioning increased. Due to the continuous epidemic control in Shanghai, the cycle of decommissioning increased the most (32% month on month), driving the continuous rise of the average cycle of decommissioning this week.
Investment suggestions:
The development of cooperation between real estate enterprises has accelerated the process of resolving industrial risks, and local governments have continued to increase financial support for residents’ house purchase. Recently, the project cooperation of some real estate enterprises in danger has been promoted. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , jiazhaoye group and Great Wall assets have signed the strategic cooperation agreement. The three parties plan to cooperate in real estate development, commercial complex operation and other fields, or are expected to accelerate the resolution of industrial risks. This week, the scope of provident fund loans in many places continued to expand and bank loans were more targeted: 1) the number of cities that increased the amount of provident fund loans continued to increase, and the adjustment scope of some second tier cities expanded. For example, Gansu increased the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan / 500000 yuan of married / single employees to 700000 yuan / Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan, and some families with three children in Taizhou increased the maximum amount of provident fund loans by 20% if they purchased the first set in the city and applied for provident fund loans for the first time, The adjustment scope of provident fund loans has been expanded to meet the housing loan needs of applicants in different situations; At the same time, raising the application amount of multi child families will help boost more consumers’ confidence in house purchase. 2) Individual housing loans will be more targeted. For example, the five major banks announced that individual housing loan customers affected by the epidemic can postpone the corresponding repayment time. Chongqing banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau requires to improve the borrowing and repayment convenience of new citizens who meet the purchase requirements and conditions. On the basis of the marginal improvement of bank loan conditions and speed in the early stage, The adjustment for specific loan needs further alleviates the financial pressure of some residents on house purchase repayment, and helps to improve the purchase willingness of new citizens, so as to continuously promote the sales progress of commercial housing and reduce the liquidity pressure of some real estate enterprises. At present, promoting commercial housing sales is still the main foothold of local policies. After the epidemic situation in some cities gradually improves, housing consumption may rebound to a certain extent. Maintain the industry’s “stronger than the market” rating.
Risk warning: there is uncertainty in the control policy and epidemic prevention and control policy; The company’s sales settlement may fluctuate.
