This week's market: this week's market performance fluctuated downward. As of the closing on April 15, the A-share auto sector fell 2.73%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.99%, and the decline of the auto sector was 1.74 percentage points higher than that of the CSI 300 index. The commercial truck sector fell 1.70%, the commercial bus sector fell 2.42%, the auto parts sector fell 2.47%, the passenger car sector fell 2.96% and the auto service sector fell 3.23%.
At the company level: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) : the company released the 2021 annual report, and the company realized an operating revenue of 9.569 billion yuan, an increase of 40.75% over the previous period. The net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 was 833 million yuan, an increase of 60.75% over the same period last year Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) : the company issued its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.463 billion yuan, an increase of 76.05% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.93%.
Industry level: SAIC will conduct pressure test for resumption of production: Recently, SAIC uniformly submitted an application for subordinate enterprises and suppliers to start the "white list" of resumption of production enterprises in advance. In the early stage of resumption of production, all units need to do a good job in the scheduling of resumption personnel, service capacity, supply chain and other work, and make preparations for resumption of production. It said that all production enterprises will start the pressure test for resumption of production on Monday, April 18, according to the scheduling situation. Tesla Shanghai factory will resume production next week: after three weeks of shutdown, it has successfully obtained the approval of the local government and is ready to resume production on Monday (April 18). Tesla has informed its employees in Shanghai to make preparations for returning to work next week. Weilai Hefei factory is gradually resuming production: Weilai Hefei production base is gradually resuming production from the 14th, and the subsequent production plan also depends on the recovery of the supply chain.
This week's view: the sentiment of the sector bottomed out, and the oversold was mainly repaired and rebounded: subject to concerns about the disturbance of production and sales of the epidemic, the auto sector has fallen significantly in the past two weeks. Since the end of March, the auto sector has fallen by nearly 7%, and the parts affected by the shutdown have been greatly affected. The PE valuation of auto parts and complete vehicles has dropped to 21 times and 27 times (close to the level at the beginning of May last year). With the resumption of work and production, the sentiment bottomed out and the marginal improvement of Q3 month on month, It is expected to usher in a recovery and rebound. However, it is worth noting that: first of all, the policy of going to the countryside by car has not been implemented. It is expected to only boost the mood, and there is no real EPS change. The impact of the epidemic on the economy and demand is still unclear. The annual production and sales are expected to be repaired. The performance of parts generally lags behind that of the whole vehicle for half a year. At present, the demand for the whole vehicle has not been clearly improved. Observing the historical valuation level of the whole vehicle and parts sector, the P / E ratio is still not at the bottom. Therefore, we believe that this round of rebound is a small-level valuation repair based on sentiment and oversold, and the inflection point of the large-scale recovery of the sector has not been really established.
Market strategy: some stocks rebounded sharply on Friday and overdrawn part of the oversold repair in advance. It is suggested to pay attention to the following main lines in the follow-up layout: PE approaches the historical bottom + the growth layout of the new track is stable. We select from top to bottom: 1) pe (2022e) approaches the 5-year historical bottom; 2) There are many corrections in the early stage, and it is expected to recover month on month after the epidemic; 3) Better layout of new tracks and high growth downstream customers; 4) Stocks with medium or above compound growth rate expected by the market in the next two years. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the marginal repair of companies and sectors with low traditional oversold valuation.
Risk tips: 1) disturbance of macroeconomic factors to the industry. 2) Risk of rising raw materials. 3) Epidemic situation and related risks.
