Key points:
From April 1, 2022 to April 15, 2022, the market as a whole showed a downward trend due to external events such as the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increased expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the aggravation of the impact of the Chinese epidemic; The sealing and control in the Yangtze River Delta region significantly impacted the supply security of semiconductor and vehicle regulation electronics industry chain, and Shenwan semiconductor industry fell 9.02%
The CSI 300 fell 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.88%, and the Kechuang 50 fell 10.79%.
The closure of some cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta had a significant impact on the normal operation of the supply chain of the semiconductor and electronics industry, combined with the rise in the price of upstream raw materials and the weakening demand for consumer electronics. Shenwan semiconductor industry fell 9.02%. Semiconductor sub sectors fell across the board.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuated downward, and the spot price of storage products fell
On April 14, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 302822, down 10.05% year-on-year in two weeks. Taiwan Semiconductor Index closed at 390.3, down 5.45% year-on-year in two weeks. Affected by negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic and the decline in downstream consumer electronics order demand, the DXI index fell, closing at 3949339 on April 14, down 4.79% month on month. Spot prices of DDR4 and DDR3 products fell. Affected by the expected reduction of downstream demand, the price of nandflash products has a high downward trend.
More than 80 semiconductor enterprises have entered the white list of the first batch of enterprises to resume work and production in Shanghai, and the government has taken various measures to ensure the safety of the supply chain of key industries such as semiconductors; A number of auto companies have cut production, and the impact of this round of epidemic on China's semiconductor supply chain may be higher than that in early 2020
Shanghai announced the list of the first batch of enterprises to resume work and production, including 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. The guidance document clearly promotes the resumption of work and production on the premise of ensuring controllable risks, and coordinates and solves the supply problems of the industrial chain. There are more than 80 "white list" enterprises in the integrated circuit industry, involving semiconductor manufacturing (wafer OEM, packaging and testing), semiconductor equipment, semiconductor raw material manufacturing enterprises and semiconductor trade logistics enterprises. The sales volume of semiconductor enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for nearly 50% of the national market share. It has been three weeks since the current round of epidemic control was sealed up on April 17; Weilai, great wall, SAIC Volkswagen and other auto enterprises reduced production. It is expected that the impact of this round of epidemic on the industrial chain is higher than that in early 2020.
Investment advice
The imbalance between supply and demand has not been alleviated in the first half of 2022, boosting the market scale of the semiconductor industry; Geopolitical conflicts may accelerate the anti globalization process of science and technology industry, and the acceleration of localization substitution process is expected to benefit Chinese semiconductor enterprises. Medium and long-term 5g mobile phones, folding mobile phones, new energy vehicles, Internet of things equipment, enterprise digital transformation and other downstream markets are in the ascendant, bringing new increment, opportunities and competition to the semiconductor industry. Leading enterprises in semiconductor manufacturing, design and upstream raw materials will continue to benefit. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the semiconductor industry and maintain the industry overweight rating.
Risk tips
R & D progress is less than expected; The downstream market demand is lower than expected; The price change of upstream raw materials is higher than expected; Macro policy changes were less than expected.
