Power battery data tracking: the output and installed capacity increased significantly on a month on month basis: according to the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery data released by the innovation alliance, the output and installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery reached 39.2gwh and 21.4gwh respectively in March 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 247.3% and 138%, and a month on month increase of 23.3% and 56.6%. From the breakdown of battery installed capacity, the installed capacity and loading capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in March were 21.4gwh, up 138.0% year-on-year and 56.6% month on month, showing a rapid growth trend. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 8.2gwh, accounting for 38.3% of the total loading, with a year-on-year increase of 61.2% and a month on month increase of 40.5%; The total loading of lithium iron phosphate battery was 13.2gwh, accounting for 61.6% of the total loading, with a year-on-year increase of 238.8% and a month on month increase of 69.4%. From January to March 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume totaled 51.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 120.7%. Among them, the total loading volume of ternary battery was 21.4gwh, accounting for 41.6% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 54.5%; The cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 29.8gwh, accounting for 58.2% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 217.9%. In terms of concentration, in March, the loading volume of power battery enterprises ranked first in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounting for 50.49%, the second in Byd Company Limited(002594) accounting for 19.24%, the third in China Innovation Airlines accounting for 8.58%, the fourth in GuoXuan accounting for 4.34%, the fifth in LG new energy accounting for 3.71%, the sixth in honeycomb energy accounting for 2.37%, and the seventh in Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) accounting for 2.2%.Eight Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) accounted for 1.86%, and the ninth Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) accounted for 1.62%, Ruipu energy ranked 10th, accounting for 1.04%. The top 3, 5 and 10 power battery enterprises accounted for 78.31%, 86.3% and 95.5% respectively.
Main view: the production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to be strong since the beginning of the year, but the upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is in short supply, driving the rapid rise in the price of cathode materials, and the profitability of lithium battery manufacturers is under pressure. Continue to recommend the midstream links with good competition pattern, and be optimistic about the leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) cathode & precursor: the production and sales growth rate is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and the leading enterprises actively expand their production and seize the market share of high-end precursors; 2) Lithium battery manufacturers: Although the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has increased significantly and the profitability of lithium battery manufacturers is under pressure, we are still optimistic about the global automotive automation process and the market value growth space of leading battery enterprises; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of head diaphragm enterprises has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprises have full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leading enterprises give priority to the growth of demand market. With the advancement of overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers is increased, which is expected to further improve profits; 4) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefited from the long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance was stabilized in 2022, and the cost and profit advantages were further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 5) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the power battery started the second production expansion tide, superimposed with the rapid growth of overseas demand, the main lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points; 6) Lithium copper foil race track: in 2022, the supply gap is uncertain, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit first.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technological renewal; Market competition intensifies risks; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
