On April 19, the factory in Shanghai resumed production. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Shanghai Super factory stopped production for two days from March 16 to March 17; Since March 28, Tesla Shanghai Super factory has stopped production again. So far, it has stopped production for more than 20 days. On April 16, the Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production in Shanghai (First Edition). On April 19, 8000 employees of Tesla Shanghai factory came to work and officially resumed production, and the production capacity will gradually climb in 3-4 days to reach the full production state of a single shift.
Q1 domestic Tesla wholesale volume of 182174, a year-on-year increase of + 163%. In March 2022, the wholesale volume of domestic Tesla was 65814, with a year-on-year increase of + 85.4% and a month on month increase of + 16.5%. In March, domestic sales dominated, with exports accounting for 0.1%, and domestic sales of 65754 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 85.2% and a month on month increase of + 183.4%.
In March, the wholesale volume of domestic modely was 39800, and the my/m3 ratio reached a new high. In terms of models, the wholesale volume of domestic model 3 in March was 26024, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.7% and a month on month increase of + 7.9%; The wholesale volume of model y was 39790, with a year-on-year increase of + 292% and a month on month increase of + 22.8%, which won the top sales of SUV in the whole market in China. In that month, the monthly wholesale volume ratio of domestic modely / Model3 reached 1.53, a record high. In 2022, Tesla Shanghai plant will usher in the expansion of production, and the sales volume of modely will be further improved with the increase of production capacity. We expect that the sales volume my / m3 ratio will increase to 2 in 2022.
The export proportion is nearly 0, and only 60 vehicles are exported from modely. In March, domestic Tesla exported only 60 vehicles, all of which were modely. According to the statistics of monthly export volume, in the quarterly periodic change of Tesla’s export volume, the export proportion of model 3 ranges from 0-100%, the quarterly peak is about 90%, and the valley value is less than 0.6% in the past two quarters; The export proportion of modely ranges from 0-50%, the quarterly peak is about 50%, and the valley value does not exceed 0.2% in recent two quarters; The total export of Model3 & Y accounts for 0-75%, the quarterly peak is about 70%, and the valley value has not exceeded 0.3% in recent two months. Nearly 60 vehicles were exported in March, and almost all the wholesale volume of domestic Tesla was used for domestic sales.
Tesla’s sales in North America exceeded 51000, expanding its leading edge. In March, Tesla sold 51763 vehicles in North America, with a year-on-year increase of + 108.92%. The best-selling model model y sold 26122 vehicles, contributing 50.5% of the share. It has sold more than 20000 vehicles for seven consecutive months. Specific to the American Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market, in March, Tesla surpassed Toyota in sales volume with 47953 vehicles, ranking first again, and the leading edge is widening; The monthly sales volume of modely has been in the top two for a long time, with 24953 vehicles sold in March, significantly ahead of other new energy models; The sales volume of model 3 is 18000, ranking second; Models sold 3000 vehicles, ranking ninth. We expect Tesla’s sales volume in North America to be 620000 / 960000 vehicles in 2022 / 2023, of which model 3 / Y / S / x will be 190000 / 37 / 3 / 30000 vehicles respectively
The production sales ratio of North American Model3 dropped to 1.26, and modely was lower than 1 for a long time. From the perspective of the production sales ratio structure of Tesla’s North American market, the production sales ratio of model 3 continued to decline, from February to 1.26. We think the main reasons are as follows: 1) with the Shanghai factory gradually undertaking more global export tasks, the output of Fremont factory can be more used for local domestic sales; 2) With the listing and hot sales of modely, the production capacity of Model3 is gradually transferred to modely. In contrast, the production sales ratio of modely has been less than 1 for a long time, and it was 0.97 in February, which is still in short supply.
Tesla’s European sales lagged behind the export of Shanghai factory for 2 months. In March, the sales volume of Model3 and modely in Europe was 10676 / 6381 respectively. Under the condition of completely relying on imports, Tesla’s sales volume in Europe reached 33885 / 35089 respectively in September / December 2021, ranking fourth / sixth in the sales volume of European new energy vehicle market respectively. Model3 has won the European new energy vehicle market for many times. In December 2021, the sales volume of Model3 in Europe was 26105, 2.27 times that of the second Renault Zoe (11504); In that month, the sales volume of modely reached 8823, ranking fourth. Tesla’s monthly sales volume in the European market showed obvious quarterly fluctuations, which significantly corresponded to the quarterly fluctuations in China’s export proportion, with a time difference of about two months.
In the European market, Model3 is the main sales model of Tesla, and its share in the B-class car market has gradually increased, surpassing the main competitive models Mercedes Benz C-class, BMW 3-Series and Audi A4. On the one hand, because modely entered the European market late, on the other hand, because modely from Shanghai factory should give priority to meeting the strong demand of the Chinese market, the export capacity to Europe is limited. With the delivery of modely from the factory in Berlin, Germany on March 22, we expect that the sales volume of modely in the European market will increase rapidly and exceed that of Model3 in the future, and Tesla’s sales growth potential in the European market will also be released. We expect Tesla’s European sales in 2022 / 2023 to be 300000 / 520000 vehicles respectively, of which model 3 / model y will be 230000 / 80000 vehicles respectively in 2022.
Industry rating and investment strategy: Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 87%. From January to March 2022, Tesla sold 182174 vehicles domestically, a year-on-year increase of 163%. Tesla is the core supplier of the industrial chain, with both volume and price rising. By enabling domestic suppliers with highly integrated solutions, Tesla continues to expand categories and enhance system integration capabilities, thus promoting the value of supporting single vehicles, which is just the opposite of the traditional OEM supply system. This trend will also be reflected in the reform of the supply system of new forces. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Focus on individual stocks: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting, which will promote the Tesla wave in the next stage. We expect that Tesla will appear in batches in 2022: Tesla will become the largest customer, and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. The recommendation of ‘ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Risk tip: Tesla Berlin plant and Texas plant are not progressing as expected; Tesla’s Shanghai plant expanded less than expected; The recovery of automobile chip shortage is less than expected; Tesla’s global sales fell short of expectations; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
