Profit recovery + valuation decline, and the value of sector allocation increases
The national standing committee will encourage bulk consumption such as household appliances, and local governments will increase subsidies for household appliances. As of April 15, the home appliance index (Shenwan) rose 0.83% this month, outperforming the Wande all a index by 4.3pcts. Last week, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed policies and measures to promote consumption and encourage large-scale consumption such as automobiles and household appliances. At the same time, the subsidy policies for household appliances in Beijing and other places have been accelerated. From April 18 to the end of September 2022, Beijing will issue green energy-saving consumption vouchers with a total amount of more than 300 million yuan to consumers in Beijing, covering 20 categories of household appliances and 3C products. Enterprises including JD, Suning, Dazhong, Gome and B & Q have participated in the event. In terms of home appliance fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object. Their overall ROE (TTM) has been in a downward channel since the peak in the mid-18 years. The ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then rebounded. As of 21, the ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 21 years has rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (2014 first quarterly report - 2021 third quarterly report). Looking forward to 2022q2, the profit recovery + low valuation of the household appliance sector, and the better allocation time point is approaching. (1) Profit recovery: the steady growth policy continued to work, and the demand side of household appliances gradually stabilized; In terms of cost, the rising trend of raw material prices has slowed down, the superposition base has increased, and the upstream cost pressure has decreased marginally in 22 years. (2) Low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks relative to the market has been callback to the historical average. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery, focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) Pay attention to Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
Fundamentals: the steady growth policy continues to work, and white electricity retail has warmed up
Real estate data: from January to March, the sales area of new houses was - 13.8% year-on-year, and real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to March 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.8% compared with the same period in 2021. At present, there are many positive statements of policies, but it still takes time for the confidence of the industry to recover. Real estate enterprises and home buyers are generally in a wait-and-see state, resulting in the downturn of real estate sales and investment in the second half of 21 years. Looking forward to the future, real estate sales and investment may continue to bottom out, and under the policy tone of "steady growth" this year, a wider range of easing policies is expected to come. From January to March 2022, the new construction area of houses decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the new construction of houses decreased significantly; The construction area of houses in the same period was + 1.0% year-on-year; The completed area of the house was - 11.5% year-on-year.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 9.69 million household air conditioners (YoY + 10.6%) were shipped in February, of which 3.84 million were sold domestically (YoY + 4.1%). Due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival holiday and the continuous force of the steady growth policy, the domestic sales of air conditioners became positive year-on-year; In February, 5.85 million air conditioners (YoY + 15.3%) were exported, which increased significantly year-on-year, and the absolute volume remained high. Retail end: the volume / volume of air-conditioning omni-channel retail sales in February was + 78% / + 105% year-on-year, and + 25% / + 21% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. Under the condition of continuous efforts of stable growth policy, air-conditioning retail sales picked up rapidly. In terms of price, online / offline prices maintained growth in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 15% / + 12% respectively; (2) Chef electricity: in February, the omni-channel retail volume / volume of range hood was + 17% / + 42% year-on-year, and + 4% / + 20% year-on-year; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in February was - 13% / - 17% year-on-year, up + 9% / + 5% year-on-year; the retail volume / volume of washing machines in February was + 4% / + 8% year-on-year, up + 8% / + 13% year-on-year. (4) Clean appliances: in February, the sales volume / volume of all channels of clean appliances were - 17% / - 7% year-on-year, the online retail volume / volume were - 17% / - 7% year-on-year, the offline retail volume / volume was - 19% / - 9% year-on-year, and the volume / volume of all channels was + 17% / + 41% year-on-year.
Risk warning: real estate sales are not as expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
