Key investment points
The manufacturing industry fell back under the impact of the epidemic, and the performance of the investment side was relatively strong
In March 2022, the PMI index closed at 49.5%, down 0.7pct from the previous month. Among them, the production index was 49.5%, down 0.9pct from the previous month, and the new order index was 48.8%, down 1.9pct from the previous month. Under the impact of the epidemic, the efficiency of enterprise supply chain has been significantly reduced. In addition, factors such as the rise of commodity prices and the short-term contraction of external demand caused by geopolitics also have a negative impact on the supply and demand ends of the manufacturing industry.
From January to March, the added value of industries above designated size increased by + 6.5% (from January to February + 7.5%), and the added value of manufacturing industry increased by + 6.2% (from January to February + 7.3%), both of which decreased slightly. Among them, the added value of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was + 14.2% and 8.1% year-on-year. The growth rate was 7.7 and 1.6 PCT faster than that of industries above Designated Size respectively, still maintaining rapid growth. From January to March, the fixed asset investment of manufacturing industry was + 15.6% year-on-year, which was strong in the three sub items of fixed asset investment, mainly due to the fact that the growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing industry was still leading, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.7%, of which the investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrument manufacturing was + 37.5% and 35.4% respectively. From January to March, the fixed asset investment of automobile and 3C industries was + 12.4% and + 27.8% year-on-year. Overall, whether the epidemic can be quickly controlled is the key to the recovery of the manufacturing industry. Considering that the national Standing Committee stressed that "we will not relax our commitment to the annual development goals", which means that the annual growth rate of about 5.5% has not been shaken at present, and greater easing policies need to be taken in the follow-up to realize the real recovery of the manufacturing industry.
Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : emerging downstream industries such as new energy have strong demand. Under the influence of the epidemic, Q2 peak season or move backward. 2022q1 industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry continues to grow. From January to March, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 102000 units, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2%; Among them, the output in March was 44000 units, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6%. In terms of downstream areas, emerging industries such as lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and semiconductors still maintain rapid growth, while 3C and general industries have weak demand due to sluggish consumption and rising commodity prices. From the perspective of product structure, according to mirdata statistics, collaboration, SCARA and big six axis Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) grew rapidly, mainly due to the increased application in the field of lithium new energy, small six axis Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased slightly, while delta Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was mostly used in the field of consumption, with a slight decline compared with the same period. From the perspective of competition pattern, the epidemic situation is mixed for domestic manufacturers. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the delivery cycle of foreign-funded enterprises has been greatly extended, which is expected to accelerate the substitution of domestic imports; On the other hand, the epidemic caused the stagnation of industrial production in the growth triangle and impacted the supply chain logistics, which had a great impact on the production and sales of Q2 industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in previous years. Q2 was usually the peak sales season in previous years. We believe that driven by the downstream demand, the peak season of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry in 2022 is expected to be delayed, and the industry will recover after the epidemic subsides. In the medium and long term, with the gradual improvement of the cost performance of domestic Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and the acceleration of "machine replacement" of the epidemic, diversified demand will promote the rapid growth of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sales volume of domestic industry.
The machine tool maintains positive growth under the high base number, and the demand for cutting tools is relatively full
Machine tool: the growth rate of the machine tool industry is closely related to the prosperity of the manufacturing industry. At present, although the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has slowed down slightly due to the epidemic, the prosperity of the machine tool industry continues under the background of a decade of renewal. From the supply side, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 60000 in March (year-on-year + 3.6%), and the cumulative year-on-year + 1.5% from January to March. It still maintained a positive growth under the high base. From the demand side, the amount of machine tool orders from Japan to China in February was also basically the same as that in 2021. As the core parts of machine tools, cutting tools fully benefit from manufacturing upgrading + import substitution. At present, the orders of major enterprises are relatively full, and the production scheduling cycle is about 1-2 months (1 month under normal conditions). Injection molding machines: from January to February, the import volume of injection molding machines increased by + 8.48% year-on-year. The overall demand of the industry began to stabilize from the second half of 2021, but at present, the orders of Haitian International, Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) and other major enterprises are still full. As the overseas epidemic tends to normalize, the production activities of major foreign economies will gradually resume, the shipping affecting exports is also expected to gradually recover, and the overseas market is expected to gradually recover. Forklift: in February, the sales volume of forklift was 71000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.3% and a month on month increase of - 14.2%. 50% of the demand of forklift industry comes from manufacturing industry, which is affected by the fluctuation of manufacturing industry. In the long run, benefiting from manual replacement, the forklift industry will grow steadily, and the trend of electrification + warehousing will further open its growth space.
Investment suggestion: we suggest to pay attention to three main lines: 1) the import substitution target of core parts is recommended [ Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ] [ Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ] [ Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ] [ Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ]; 2) The business layout is oriented to the downstream of high prosperity and is expected to smooth the cyclical fluctuation of the industry. It is recommended to [ Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) ] [ Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ]; 3) The inflection point of the renewal cycle is upward, and the import substitution can be expected under the scale expansion. It is recommended that machine tool enterprises [ Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) ] [ Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) ] [ Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) ].
Risk warning: downstream fixed asset investment is less than expected; Industry cycle fluctuation; The impact of the epidemic continues
