In March 2022, the express industry experienced negative growth due to the impact of the epidemic. In March 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 8.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, the growth rate of the same period last year (47.4%) turned from positive to negative, and the growth rate of the chain from January to February 2022 (19.6%) turned from positive to negative; The business revenue reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, the growth rate of the same period last year (27.7%) changed from positive to negative, and the growth rate of the chain from January to February 2022 (13.8%) changed from positive to negative; The single ticket income was about 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% and a month on month decrease of 4.5% from January to February 2022. In the first three months of 2022, the CR8 index of the express industry was 84.9, an increase of 4.4 year-on-year and a decrease of 0.4 month on month from January to February 2022. On the whole, due to the repeated epidemic in China and the upgrading of prevention and control measures in some regions, it has a negative impact on the business of express companies. However, in terms of the absolute number of express packages, the business volume of the whole industry in March 22 was still significantly higher than that in March 2020.
In March 2022, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) and Guangzhou decreased month on month. In March 2022, the average single ticket income of express business in Zhejiang Province was about 5.32 yuan, a decrease of 0.45 yuan from January to February of 22, and the average single ticket income of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) region was about 3.07 yuan, a decrease of 0.16 yuan from January to February of 22; The average single ticket income of express business in Guangdong Province is about 7.83 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan compared with January February of 22 years. The average single ticket income of express business in Guangzhou is about 7.32 yuan, a decrease of 0.16 yuan compared with January February of 22 years.
In March 2022, the proportion of physical online shopping agencies increased month on month. In March 2022, the total amount of social zero in China decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, from positive to negative compared with the growth rate (6.7%) from January to February of 22 years; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 10.9pct compared with the growth rate from January to February of 22 years (13.6%); The proportion of physical online shopping cooperatives (online retail sales of physical goods / total national social retail sales) was 26.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.57 PCT. On the whole, due to the repeated epidemic in China, there was a negative growth in social zero. At the same time, under the epidemic prevention and control, some offline consumer demand was transferred to online, and the proportion of physical online shopping social zero increased year-on-year and month on month. Considering the decline of logistics efficiency caused by the upgrading of prevention and control measures in some regions, the repeated epidemic in China has a negative impact on the express industry as a whole. However, with the gradual emergence of the effect of epidemic prevention and control in China in the future, the supply and demand of the express industry will also recover.
In March 2022, the revenue growth rate of Tongda express company decreased month on month. In March, 2022, the business volume growth of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in a single month was -7.9%, 4.4%, 5.1% and 8.8% respectively; In March 2022, the average monthly single ticket income of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong was 15.52 yuan, 2.59 yuan, 2.40 yuan (after adjustment) and 2.43 yuan (after adjustment), respectively, with a year-on-year change of -1.15, + 0.10, -0.30 and -0.13 yuan from January to February of 22, and a year-on-year change of -0.22, + 0.40, + 0.15 and + 0.18 yuan respectively. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic after the Spring Festival, the volume and price of Tongda express companies have been slightly impacted. However, the business volume of Tongda express companies has maintained positive growth, and the market share has been further improved. In March 2022, the growth rates of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business revenue were – 5.9%, 23.4%, 15.7% and 24.0% respectively, significantly lower than the growth rates from January to February of 22 years (7.2%, 47.8%, 41.1% and 39.7% respectively).
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the negative impact on express companies is limited; The regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry will come into force on March 1, 2022. The price war in the industry will slow down or will continue to be verified, promoting the profit recovery of express companies. Under this background, head express enterprises will obviously benefit. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry, recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and suggest paying attention to China Express (H) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
Risk analysis: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of express demand; The growth of e-commerce was lower than the market expectation, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of express demand; The penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; The competition in the express industry exceeded expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in single ticket revenue.
