Key investment points
Data overview
In total, the monthly premium of 22m3 life insurance was + 2.4% (previous value + 2.4%) year-on-year, and the cumulative premium of 22m1-3 was + 0.4% (previous value - 0.1%) year-on-year; Property insurance 22m3 single month premium + 10.1% (previous value + 16.0%), 22m1-3 cumulative year-on-year + 11.8% (previous value + 12.9%).
Core view
1. The marginal improvement of life insurance slightly exceeded expectations
In 22m3 single month, the life insurance premium of CPIC + 10.1% (previous value + 14.8%) Guoshou + 5.7% (previous value - 3.4%) PICC + 1.8% (previous value + 18.8%) Taiping + 1.6% (previous value + 3.0%) Xinhua - 4.1% (previous value + 11.1%) Ping An - 4.2% (previous value - 4.9%). 22m1-3 accumulated, life insurance premiums increased by 18.3% CPIC + 4.2% Xinhua + 2.4% Ping An - 2.3% Taiping - 2.4% Guoshou - 2.7%.
CPIC has the highest monthly premium growth, which is expected to be mainly due to the improvement of renewal business; The growth rate of Guoshou and ping an improved month on month in March. In the assessment month in March, it is expected that insurance enterprises will realize the marginal improvement of single month business in combination with the operation of increased lifetime products.
Looking forward to 22q2, the period of the largest decline in new single business of listed insurance enterprises (22q1) has passed, and the decline in manpower has narrowed. It is expected that after the epidemic has been effectively controlled, the decline in new single business will further narrow.
2. The growth rate of property insurance fell and grew steadily
In a single month of 22m3, the property insurance premium was Taiping + 14.7% (previous value + 14.6%) CPIC + 10.9% (previous value + 22.5%) PICC + 10.2% (previous value + 13.4%) Ping An + 9.2% (previous value + 17.6%). 22m1-3 cumulative Premium: CPIC + 13.8% PICC + 12.2% Ping An + 10.3% Taiping + 5.6%.
The monthly premium growth of all property insurance companies slowed down in March, mainly due to the low-speed growth of auto insurance business. The decline in new car sales caused by the epidemic dragged down the growth of auto insurance. In 22q1, listed property insurance companies basically maintained a growth rate of about 10%. Looking forward to 22q2, affected by the decline of new car sales, the growth rate is expected to decline slightly, but the overall steady growth trend will not change. At the same time, the reduction of accident rate will optimize the comprehensive cost rate and help improve the underwriting profit.
Investment advice
In March, credit and social finance exceeded expectations. The national standing committee meeting on April 13 deployed measures to promote consumption, stabilize foreign trade and benefit entities, and continued to strengthen the policy of stabilizing growth. Despite the impact of the epidemic in the short term, under the background of steady growth and continuous promotion, the most severe period at the debt end of the industry has passed, and the decline in 22q2 is expected to be further narrowed. From the asset side, many cities gradually liberalized purchase and loan restrictions, helped the real estate demand pick up, and the real estate risk of insurance companies continued to improve. At the same time, the long-term interest rate was about 2.8%, and the downward space was limited. After the correction of the equity market, the risk was released. The current valuation of the insurance sector is still at an all-time low with a high margin of safety. It is expected to usher in valuation repair and maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The life insurance reform was less than expected, the epidemic spread more than expected, the capital market volatility increased, and the long-term interest rate fell sharply.
