Key investment points
This week (2022.4.112022.4.15): the real estate sector (SW) rose and fell by – 2.90%. In the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and wandequan a indexes rose and fell by – 0.99% and – 2.46% respectively, and the excess return was – 1.91% and – 0.45% respectively.
Real estate fundamentals and high-frequency data: (1) real estate market: this week (2022.4.9-2022.4.15), the transaction area of new houses in 60 cities was 2.573 million square meters, with a month on month increase of + 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of – 66.5%; In 2022, the cumulative sales were 54.983 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 46.2%; From April 1 to April 15, 2022, the cumulative turnover was 5.522 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 64.0%; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 977000 square meters, with a month on month increase of + 13.0% and a year-on-year increase of – 56.7%; In 2022, the cumulative turnover was 14.885 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 44.4%; From April 1 to April 15, 2022, the cumulative turnover was 2.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 52.2%. The cumulative inventory of new houses in 16 cities was – 0.47% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%; The decontamination cycle increased by 0.5 months month on month. The de urbanization cycles of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities were 13.6, 16.7 and 29.2 months respectively, up 0.8, 0.3 and 1.4 months respectively compared with last week. (2) Land market: this week (April 11, 2022-april 17, 2022), the number of land supplied by 100 cities was – 29.3% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 79.1%; The construction area of supplied land was – 39.0% month on month and – 82.8% year-on-year. The construction area of land transaction in Baicheng was – 57.6% month on month and – 85.6% year on year; The transaction floor price was – 20.4% month on month and – 53.0% year on year; The land premium rate was + 0.2pct month on month and -28.2pct year on year.
Key policies: since March, the relaxation of real estate has been further strengthened, from the previous reduction of interest rate and relaxation of provident fund to the relaxation of purchase and sales restrictions. Recently, the policy has been further expanded from the third and fourth tier to the strong second tier. This week, the policy has been relaxed in Suzhou, Nanjing, Kunming and other second tier cities. On April 11, Nanjing printed and distributed the notice on the pilot use of bank guarantee for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing to improve the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds of commercial housing, improve the capital turnover and cash flow difficulties of real estate enterprises to a certain extent, and ensure that the pre-sale funds are used for project construction, boost residents’ confidence in the delivery of houses by real estate enterprises and benefit the normal operation of real estate enterprises; On April 16, Kunming issued the opinions of the office of Kunming Municipal People’s Government on promoting the stability of land price and house price in the real estate market, formulated relevant policies from eight aspects: accelerating the de commercialization of commercial and commercial housing, alleviating the difficulties of real estate development enterprises during the epidemic, encouraging relocation and resettlement in various ways, and optimizing housing financial services, and made it clear that the loan amount of housing provident fund should be moderately increased Reduce the proportion of down payment for the purchase of two sets of houses, allow real estate enterprises to postpone the payment of land, and strengthen monetized resettlement. In the first quarter of 2022, with the transaction in Kunming and the continuous downturn of the land market, the introduction of the opinions reflects the strong will of the government to stabilize the real estate market, which is conducive to boosting the confidence of real estate enterprises, ensuring the delivery of real estate, promoting the expectation of home buyers from weak to strong and promoting the warming of the real estate market.
Zhou’s view: since the beginning of 2022, the policy warm wind has been blowing frequently, and the relaxation policy of real estate has expanded from the third and fourth tier cities to the strong second tier cities, with increasing efforts, and even breaking through the purchase and sale restrictions. Under the premise of economic instability, relaxation and “no speculation in housing and housing”, there are still high expectations for improvement in the policy. The key to market recovery lies in the improvement of credit and liquidity problems of real estate enterprises on the supply side. Recently, many departments of the CSRC issued documents to support the financing of private enterprises, relax the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing in Nanjing, and relieve the difficulties of real estate enterprises during the epidemic in Kunming, which successively released the signals of supply side relaxation. If the credit and liquidity of real estate enterprises continue to work in the future, this round of market will be more catalytic. In the short term, during the period of fundamentals bottoming, the valuation will be gradually repaired, and the industry opportunities are greater than individual stocks. In the medium and long term, with the contraction of some risk real estate enterprises, the head company will get more opportunities for resource integration, and the industry pattern will be optimized. It is suggested to pay attention to China’s overseas development, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) .
Risk tip: the relaxation of real estate regulation policy is less than expected; The industry continued to decline, and the sales were lower than expected; Industry credit risk continues to spread; The epidemic situation is repeated and develops beyond expectations
