Main points:
Event:
The National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data in March.
Dragged down repeatedly by the epidemic, the total amount of social zero in March dropped significantly. In 2022q1, the total amount of social zero was 108659 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year; In March 2022, the total amount of social zero was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. By consumption type, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in March, some catering consumption scenes disappeared, and the growth rate of catering revenue fell much higher than that of commodity retail. In 2022q1, the retail sales of goods reached 9806 billion yuan (+ 3.6%), and the catering revenue reached 1065.3 billion yuan (+ 0.5%); In March, the retail sales of goods were 3129.8 billion yuan (- 2.1%), and the catering revenue was 293.5 billion yuan (- 16.4%).
The epidemic has impacted offline retail sales, with steady growth online
Online retail sales in 2022q1 reached 3012 billion yuan (+ 6.6%), including 2525.7 billion yuan (+ 8.8%) of physical goods, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In March, 2022, the online retail sales were 1056.2 billion yuan (+0.5%), and the offline sales were 2367.1 billion yuan (-5.2%). Offline consumption was significantly impacted by the epidemic.
The growth rate of optional consumption decreased significantly, and the basic consumption toughness was strong
Under the control of the epidemic in March, home isolation increased, and the growth rate of basic consumption such as grain, oil, food and beverage increased. The growth rate of beverage increased by 12.6% year-on-year, grain, oil and food increased by 12.5% year-on-year, 1.2pct and 4.6pct respectively compared with January to February 2022. Under the repeated epidemic, offline consumption decreased, and the growth rate of optional consumption decreased significantly. The growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry decreased by 17.9%, furniture decreased by 8.8% and automobile decreased by 7.5% year-on-year. Compared with January to February 2022, the growth rate decreased by 37.4pct, 2.8pct and 11.4pct respectively.
Investment advice
(1) cosmetics industry: with the changes of cosmetics sales channels, online consumption has become a battleground for strategists, and the online sales of some head brands account for more than 70%. From a regional perspective, East China is one of the important regions for cosmetics sales. The sales of some head brands in East China account for about 20%, such as Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) account for 21%, 17% and 18% respectively. Due to the repeated epidemic, Shanghai has entered a global static state, the logistics distribution has been affected, and the transformation of online demand has been disturbed in the short term. However, due to the obvious siphon effect of cosmetics in the promotion, affected by section 38 and the subsequent 618 promotion, the purchase demand of cosmetics will shrink in the short term in April. Therefore, we believe that the impact of logistics suspension can be controlled in the short term. Attention: Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , etc.
(2) the supervision of the medical and beauty industry continues to be stricter, which is expected to speed up the standardization process of the industry. The competitive advantages of head medical beauty products supply enterprises with complete certificates and medical beauty institutions with long-term standardized operation are more prominent. Attention: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Sihuan medicine, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Ruili Yimei, etc.
Risk tips
Repeated impact of the epidemic, intensified industry competition, macroeconomic fluctuations, etc.
