Key investment points
In March, the sales volume of electric vehicles was 484000, with a month on month ratio of + 114.2% / + 44.9%, and the penetration rate was 21.7%, exceeding market expectations. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 484000, with a month on month ratio of + 114.2% / + 44.9%, and the penetration rate was 21.7%. In 2022q1, 1249000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 138.6%, and the cumulative penetration rate was 19.3%; In March, the output of electric vehicles was 465000, with a month on month ratio of + 115.3% / + 26.4%. The cumulative output in 2022q1 was 1285000, a year-on-year increase of 142.6%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in March was 461000, an increase of 117.0% and 43.6% respectively; The output was 443000 vehicles, an increase of 119.3% and a ring increase of 25.1%.
The proportion of pure electricity has increased, and the demand for A00 vehicles has gradually recovered. According to the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in March was 455100, with a month on month ratio of + 122% / + 44%, a penetration rate of 25%, a month on month ratio of + 4pct, and the cumulative sales volume in Q1 reached 1189700, a year-on-year increase of 148%. The sales volume of pure electric passenger cars was 370600, with a month on month ratio of + 120% / + 51%, accounting for 81%, and a month on month ratio of + 4pct: among them, the sales volume of A00 class was 118500, with a year-on-year increase of 70%, a month on month increase of 75%, accounting for 32%, and a month on month ratio of + 4pct; The sales volume of A0 class is 54600, with a year-on-year increase of 445%, a month on month increase of 63%, accounting for 15%, and a month on month increase of + 1PCT; Class a sales volume was 82600, with a year-on-year increase of 167%, a month on month increase of 45%, accounting for 22%, and a month on month decrease of 1PCT; Class b/c sales volume was 114900, with a year-on-year increase of 98%, a month on month increase of 32%, accounting for 31%, and a month on month decrease of 4pct. The sales volume of plug-in passenger vehicles was 84500, with a year-on-year increase of 151% and a month on month increase of 17%, accounting for 19% of the sales volume of new energy vehicles, with a month on month decrease of 4pct.
In terms of the types of car enterprises, the new forces performed brilliantly and the market share increased steadily. In March, independent car enterprises sold 289800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 144%, a month on month increase of 49%, a market share of 64%, a month on month increase of 2pct, a penetration rate of 41%, and a cumulative market share of 62% from January to March; Tesla sold 65800 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 85%, a month on month increase of 16%, a market share of 14%, a month on month decrease of 3PCT, and a cumulative market share of 15% from January to March; In March, new forces sold 70900 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 160%, a month on month increase of 83%, a market share of 16%, a month on month increase of 3PCT, and a cumulative market share of 15% from January to March.
Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and Shangtong Wuling are firmly in the top three, and their own brands continue to make efforts Byd Company Limited(002594) 3 month sales volume was 104300, with a month on month increase of 336% / 19%, accounting for 23%; Tesla sold 65800 vehicles in March, with a month on month increase of 85% / 16%, accounting for 14%; Shangtong Wuling sold 51200 vehicles in March, with a month on month increase of 23% / 96%, accounting for 11%; GAC ea’an performed well, selling 20000 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 132% / + 138%. The new forces performed brilliantly. Xiaopeng sold 15000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 202% / + 19%, Nezha sold 1.2 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 270% / + 69%; Zero run and Nezha contributed the main increment, of which 10000 were sold, with a month on month ratio of + 909% / + 193%; In addition, the ideal sales volume was 11000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 125% / – 10%; Weilai sales volume was 9985 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 38% / + 3%; Weima sales volume was 3719 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 49% / + 139%.
Investment suggestion: 484000 electric vehicles were sold in March, with a month on month increase of 114.2% / 44.9%, better than the market expectation. 1.249 million electric vehicles were sold in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 143%. Considering the short-term impact of the epidemic, we expect to maintain the sales expectation of 6 million vehicles throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 70%. In the short term, due to the fear of the impact of the epidemic, the valuation has fallen back to 15-35 times in 2022, which is at the bottom of history. The 22-year high outlook continues. We expect a high increase of 80-100% and continue to look at the electric vehicle leader in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link of profit restoration in 22 years. The long-term situation is good, with superimposed energy storage holdings, the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , The second main line: upgrading of battery technology: high nickel ternary ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than we expected, focusing on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk tips: sales volume and policies are lower than expected, competition intensifies, etc.
