Event: affected by the epidemic in March, the industry situation was very severe. In early March, risk control was implemented in Shenzhen affected by the epidemic, and the epidemic broke out in Jilin and Shanghai in the middle and late March. As one of the most important aviation hubs in China, Shanghai’s sealing and control has an immeasurable impact on the industry.
The transportation capacity dropped precipitously, and it will be even lower in April: in March, the supply of China’s airline transportation capacity fell sharply. The outbreak in Shenzhen in the first ten days of the year and the outbreak in Shanghai and Jilin in the middle and last ten days of the year and continued to this day, superimposed with point-by-point epidemics in various regions, caused a huge blow to the supply and demand of the aviation industry. The capacity of the three major airlines of the China line dropped to less than half of the same period in 19 years in March. The passenger throughput of Pudong Airport in March dropped sharply from about 2.4 million in February to 700000, Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) dropped sharply to about 500000.
More seriously, the March data can not fully reflect the current severe situation of the aviation industry. According to the statistics of flight steward and other third parties, the air capacity was high before and low after the launch in March, and the curve showed a cliff like decline. By early April, the number of daily flights of the three major airlines was only about one fifth of that in early March, even lower than the number of flights when the epidemic broke out from February to March 2020.
The spring and autumn and auspicious, which were originally relatively small and easy to turn around, are also difficult to stay out of this round of epidemic. In particular, both are shipping companies based in Shanghai, so they are more directly affected. Especially auspicious, due to the high proportion of departure routes in Shanghai, the impact is expected to be greater than that in spring and autumn.
The passenger seat rate has been very low, and there is limited room for further decline: the passenger seat rate of all airlines decreased significantly in March. On the whole, the passenger seat rate decreased to about 60%, 5% month on month, and 21% lower than the same period in 19 years. However, when the passenger seat rate is less than 60% and may continue to decline, the airlines will give priority to reducing the number of flights, so as to delay the downward trend of passenger seat rate. Therefore, we believe that although the situation in April is more severe than that in March, However, the occupancy rate will not continue to fall sharply on the basis of March.
It will take some time to open international routes, but at present or in the darkness before dawn: the recent epidemic spread in Shanghai and Shenzhen shows that China’s immune barrier has not been completed, and there is a great risk of rash liberalization. However, the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai also shows that the sealing and control method is not omnipotent. After vaccination, special drugs and other medical resources are fully prepared, the orderly relaxation of epidemic control on Chinese and international routes is a high probability event in the foreseeable future. The current dilemma may be the darkness before Li Ming.
Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn; Changes in civil aviation policies; Safety accidents; Large fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates; Abnormal weather factors, etc.
