Event: the industry released the production and sales data of household air conditioners online. In March 2022, the production of household air conditioners was 16.212 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, and the sales volume was 166736 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%. Among them, domestic shipments were 8.2884 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.25%, and exports were 8.3842 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.64%.
The growth rate of domestic sales improved month on month in March. In March, the domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 3.25% year-on-year, and the growth rate was improved compared with the cumulative data from January to February. We believe that the reason may be the increased willingness to prepare goods through sales. From the retail side, affected by the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, the terminal sales were depressed in March. Although the terminal sales price increased year-on-year, the sales volume and sales volume decreased year-on-year. According to ovicloud, online and offline retail sales of air conditioners decreased by 21.7% and 22.89% year-on-year in March. For air-conditioning enterprises, April has entered the second quarter and is about to usher in the peak season of air-conditioning. Enterprises increase production scheduling and have sufficient power to prepare goods for the channel. According to the air conditioning production scheduling data, the domestic production scheduling of household air conditioners in April 2022 increased by 14.9% over the same period last year. In terms of export, the growth trend continued, with a year-on-year increase of 6.64% in March, which was higher than the cumulative growth rate from January to February. From the production scheduling data, the good trend of export is expected to continue.
The domestic and foreign growth rates of the United States are fast. In March, Midea sold 5.6 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, including 2.6 million units for domestic sales, with a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and 3 million units for export, with a year-on-year increase of 20%. We believe that the year-on-year increase in export sales is mainly due to the relatively low base in the same period last year, and the export data of Midea in March is the same as that in 2020. In March, Gree’s total sales volume was 4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, of which 2.55 million units were sold domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%. The decline has narrowed, and 1.45 million units were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Haier’s performance was relatively stable, with a total sales volume of 1.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, including 1.36 million units for domestic sales, a year-on-year increase of 0.74%, and 570000 units for export, a year-on-year increase of 14%. In addition to the three major white power companies, other brands are clearly differentiated, and the domestic and foreign sales of Hisense and TCL have achieved rapid growth.
Industry concentration decreased slightly. In March, the market share of total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier was 33.59%, 23.99% and 11.58%, with a year-on-year change of 4.32, -3.26 and -0.07pct, of which the domestic market share was 31.37%, 30.77% and 16.41%, with a year-on-year change of 4.59, -4.74 and -0.41pct, and the export market share was 35.78%, 17.29% and 12.52%, with a year-on-year change of 3.99, -1.53 and 0.82pct respectively. From the perspective of concentration, the domestic sales CR3 of air conditioners in March was 78.55%, a slight decrease of 0.55pct year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: in March, the domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 3.2% year-on-year against the background of poor retail performance, while the export sales continued the growth trend. Due to the continuous impact of the epidemic in April, it is still difficult to recover the retail end of air conditioning. As the peak season of air conditioning sales is coming, the superposition export situation is good, and the output of domestic and foreign sales has increased. Recently, the price of raw materials is at a high level, manufacturers hedge the rising pressure of costs by raising prices, and the improvement expectation of industry profits is expected to continue. Due to many recent adjustments, the valuation of white electric faucet is at a relatively low position in history and the safety margin is high. Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ( Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of export order transfer; The impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk.
