Investment suggestion: maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector, which is affected by the epidemic in the short term, and the consumption is suppressed to a certain extent. However, the leading enterprises will further consolidate the industry position through good product strength, flexible multi-channel layout, good early stage display of channels and exertion of supply chain advantages. We suggest to actively pay attention to the subdivided leaders with fundamental support:
1) beauty makeup: although under the pressure of the overall consumption environment, the industry itself has the support of prosperity. At present, facing the challenges of stricter supervision and peak flow, the trend of brand differentiation at the head and tail has accelerated, and the head brand company has business toughness; Moreover, the relevant listed companies mainly focus on the e-commerce sales mode, and the impact of the epidemic in March was relatively small; It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises based on brand strength + large single product + multi-channel flexible layout to continuously consolidate their competitive advantages, with emphasis on Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) etc; 2) Medical beauty: the medical beauty industry is in the stage of rapid increase in penetration and strong terminal demand. With the further standardization of industrial regulations, accelerate the clearance of small enterprises and non-conforming products, and create a healthy development soil for leading enterprises. Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc. are recommended. 3) Shangchao department store: under the short-term epidemic prevention and control upgrade, the consumer hoarding and homestay scene promoted the demand for essential categories such as fresh food, and superimposed the upward expectation of CPI, which was good for the same store performance of Shangchao; In the long run, with the weakening of the impact of community group purchase and other modes, the business supermarket sector returns to pay attention to the core competitive advantages such as supply chain; With the business adjustment of supermarkets in place, the sector is expected to usher in business repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , etc;
Prospect of the first quarterly report: according to the prosperity of beauty, medical beauty, gold and jewelry, e-commerce operators and supermarkets, as well as the tracking and analysis of the operation of key listed companies. We expect that under the influence of multiple environmental factors, the beauty industry and medical beauty industry will show an accelerated differentiation trend, and the leading enterprises are expected to achieve a growth level much better than the industry average; Although the gold jewelry sector was affected by the epidemic in March, the overall Q1 performance is expected to be high before and low after, but the head brand still showed a certain business toughness by accelerating the opening of stores. The business supermarket sector is expected to achieve a certain business restorative growth under the improvement of consumption demand for fresh home products under the epidemic and its own adjustment.
Social zero data: the growth rate of social zero fell in March due to the impact of the epidemic. The total amount of social zero in Q1 was 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%. After deducting price factors, the actual year-on-year increase was + 1.3%. In March, under the influence of the epidemic, the total amount of social zero decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. 1) According to retail formats, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores and specialty stores in Q1 increased by 3.2%, 10.1%, 6.6%, 10.3% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, and department stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year; Online retail sales increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the penetration rate increased by 1.2pct to 23.2%; 2) The growth of mandatory categories was steady. The year-on-year growth rates in March were grain, oil and food + 12.5%, beverages + 12.6%, tobacco and alcohol + 7.2%, daily necessities – 0.8%, cultural and office supplies + 9.8%, and Chinese and Western medicines + 11.9%; The growth rate from January to February was + 4.6, + 1.2, – 6.4, – 11.5, – 1.3, + 4.4pct respectively; 3) The overall performance of the optional categories was sluggish. The year-on-year growth rates in March were – 6.3% for cosmetics, – 12.7% for clothing and – 17.9% for gold and jewelry, respectively – 13.3, – 17.5, – 37.4pct from January to February.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Offline exhibition stores are not as expected; The launch of new products was less than expected
