Heterojunction: 1.2gw pilot line is proposed in Longji, and large-scale application in the industry is approaching
1) according to the public EIA report, the contents are publicized as the pilot project of phase I new high-efficiency battery of Longji Central Research Institute, with a construction scale of 1200mW and located in Xixian new area, Shaanxi Province. We expect that the project is related to the pilot test line of hjt battery.
2) project content: pilot test and research and development of new high-efficiency battery will be carried out. Laser cutting machine, flocking cleaning machine, PECVD, PVD, screen printing machine and other equipment are adopted. We expect that the bidding for some equipment of the project has begun.
3) at present, Tongwei, Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Singapore rec, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) etc. have announced the production expansion of GW level hjt. Since 2021, the industry bidding order has been nearly 13GW (according to our statistics). Among them, Tongwei, Huasheng and Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) have started GW level mass production. For example, the superimposed Longji 1.2gw pilot test line will be gradually put into operation in the future. The GW level production line represents the gradual recognition of traditional leaders (Longji and Tongwei) for the hjt industry, indicating that heterojunction batteries are expected to accelerate industrialization.
Heterojunction: industrialization is approaching; In the next five years, the compound growth rate of the equipment industry will exceed 80%, and the leading market value is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan
1) in the short term: with the verification of mass production data by Chinese heterojunction equipment manufacturers in downstream customers and the introduction of superimposed microcrystalline process, smbb and domestic silver slurry, it is expected to level the end cost of hjt components in 2022 and welcome more GW level production expansion orders in the industry.
2) medium and long term: we believe that heterojunction battery is at the end of the first stage of perc battery development (compared with perc battery 20152016). With the maturity of hjt domestic equipment and the improvement of economic practicability, it is expected to replicate the rapid penetration process of perc and start the cycle of the explosion of the next generation battery technology.
3) heterojunction cost: with (1) wafer slicing – from 150 microns to 120 microns in thickness, the cost of silicon wafer is greatly reduced; (2) Multi main grid and silver clad copper reduce the consumption of silver slurry – from 180mg / tablet to 90mg / tablet; (3) Equipment cost reduction; (4) Target localization, etc. It will jointly promote the cost reduction of hjt, and it is expected to level the cost of battery end and perc in 2023.
4) equipment market space: it is estimated that the market space of hjt equipment will exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025 and the CAGR will be 80% in five years. Under the assumption of net interest rate of 20% and 25 times PE, the market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. The leading market is expected to account for more than 50% and reach a market value of 100 billion.
[ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] the leader of photovoltaic heterojunction equipment, with sustained high growth in the next five years
The company is a leader in photovoltaic heterojunction (hjt) equipment, with “first mover advantage” + “whole line supply capacity”. The equipment supply capacity of the whole hjt line has been realized (the value of the equipment has increased from 25% in perc field to 95% in hjt field). The downstream has cooperated smoothly with Tongwei, Huasheng, REC, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Aikang, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Atlas and other customers, and has won many GW orders.
[ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ] a new star of photovoltaic heterojunction battery equipment, and the leader of module equipment will take off for the second time
The company has established Jinchen Gemini in a joint venture with h2gemini of Germany (the core members have worked in applied materials, meyerberg, Schmidt, etc.), with leading technical strength + equity mechanism in the industry. With a fixed increase of 380 million yuan, the company has successfully issued and overweight PECVD equipment, with a capacity of 20 sets / year. By the end of 2021, the company’s PECVD equipment for hjt has been verified by Jinneng production line, and the average efficiency has reached 24.38%; Meanwhile, in March 2022, the company’s first microcrystalline hjtpecvd equipment has been verified by Jinneng technology, and the target mass production conversion efficiency is 25% +.
[ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] the leader of photovoltaic cell equipment, which will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years
The company has a leading layout in the field of hjt equipment and has the ability of whole line coverage. RPD equipment has significant advantages in improving efficiency and is exclusive to the Chinese market. At present, the company cooperates smoothly with customers such as Aikang and Runyang. It is a rare enterprise in China with the supply capacity of perc / TOPCON / hjt process equipment. Its tubular heterojunction PECVD has the characteristics of low investment cost, small floor area, high startup rate and low maintenance cost.
Investment suggestion: the key recommendation of photovoltaic heterojunction equipment is Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) .
Risk tip: risk of product or technology substitution in photovoltaic industry; The impact of the epidemic on overseas demand.
