Core: the industry price was still strong in March, and follow-up attention was paid to the repair of local price depressions
In terms of industry, the unit price of March 2022 ticket was 9.58 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.07 yuan. Among them, for the price wind vane in key grain producing areas, the unit price of Yiwu March ticket was 3.07 yuan, unchanged month on month; The unit price of Guangzhou March ticket is 7.32 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.17 yuan.
In terms of the company, in March 2022, the unit price of Yunda ticket was 2.59 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.25 yuan; The unit price of round pass ticket is 2.48 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.18 yuan; The unit price of Shentong ticket is 2.56 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.03 yuan.
Core analysis: We analyzed that January was the high price of the Spring Festival, and February was the normal return after the Spring Festival. In March, the industrial unit price further increased by 0.07 yuan month on month, which verified that the price was still strong. In addition, the month on month differentiation of ticket unit price of each company is mainly affected by the difference of base and off-season cargo weight structure. Supervision promotes the return of prices to a benign trend. We judge that the prices in the subsequent off-season are expected to continue to be strong and the temporary costs can be transmitted smoothly. We will pay attention to the repair of price depressions such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the future.
The epidemic mainly affects the timeliness of performance rather than the demand for performance
Affected by the local epidemic, the single volume of the industry decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in March. In March 2022, affected by the local epidemic, the number of express orders in the industry was 8.541 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; The total single volume of 22q1 still increased by 10.5% year-on-year.
According to our analysis, the impact of the epidemic on express delivery is mainly due to the timeliness of performance rather than the demand for performance:
1) demand side: during the epidemic period, offline consumption channels are restricted, which catalyzes the transfer of consumption to online. During the resumption of the epidemic in 2020, the penetration rate of physical online shopping in China increased from 21.5% in February to 24.1% in April. In March 2022, the cumulative penetration rate of physical online shopping was 23.2%, with a month on month increase of 1.2pts and a year-on-year increase of 1.3pts.
2) receiving end: for the b-end warehouse and sorting center in the epidemic sealing and control area, there is a backlog of outgoing documents; In addition, we need to analyze the various aspects of the disinfection and sterilization of express mail, and we analyze that the main route is mainly affected by time limitation.
3) at the delivery end, the shortage of transport capacity in the last kilometer also leads to the backlog of express mail, but the express delivery is a living material guarantee enterprise. We judge that the performance capacity is expected to be marginally improved under the improvement of the epidemic situation, and the volume of packages may rebound significantly at that time.
The leading share of Tongda Department maintained an increase. Under the influence of the epidemic, the single volume in March bucked the trend and increased year-on-year
Tongda is the leader of the system and continues to grow against the trend. In March 2022, SF’s single quantity was 803 million, with a year-on-year market share of -0.53pts to 9.40%; Yunda has a single volume of 1.582 billion pieces, with a year-on-year market share of + 1.33pts to 18.52%; The number of Yuantong orders was 1.417 billion, with a year-on-year market share of + 1.30pts to 16.59%; The number of Shentong orders was 987 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 1.27pts to 11.56%. In March, the year-on-year growth rates of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong orders were + 4.4%, + 5.1% and + 8.8% respectively; The year-on-year growth rates of orders of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in 22q1 were + 19.6%, + 18.1% and + 26.2% respectively. The share is still concentrated to the leader. According to the express service brand concentration index CR8 released by the State Post Office, the cumulative CR8 in March 2022 was 84.9%, a month on month decrease of 0.4pts and an increase of 4.4pts over the same period of last year; In terms of the cumulative market share of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong, the cumulative Cr4 of A-share express in March 2022 was 54.3%, with a month on month increase of 1.0pts and a year-on-year increase of 2.5pts. The single volume still showed a trend of concentration to the leader.
Investment: the track pattern is gradually clear and optimistic about the leading development
Policy supervision is the source driving force for the recovery of the express boom, and the trend is gradually increasing. Following the legislation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry in September 2021, the state post office began to solicit public opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) on January 7, 2022. From the revised content of the measures, we interpret the key increment as one core, two dimensions and three key points: “one core” is to promote the national high-quality development of the express industry; “Two dimensions” lie in competition order and service quality; The “three key points” are to prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusive price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees. The regulatory legislation will be upgraded to the national level, and local price depressions will be repaired, so as to ensure the profitability in multiple aspects and return to benign. The repair of industry value is expected to exceed expectations. In March 2022, the regulation of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry was officially implemented, which will further implement the requirement of providing express services at no less than the cost.
Express value repair is divided into three levels and two stages, which is about to enter the essential level of profit repair. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of last year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the level of profit repair. In fact, the leading performance has begun to verify the profit recovery of the sector. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Zhongtong express 21q4 single ticket hit the bottom of + 0.08 yuan month on month. It is Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) preliminarily estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February of 22 was 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.4%.
Invest in different tracks and be optimistic about the leading development. In terms of franchise system, we are optimistic about Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , the improvement of value certainty, Zhongtong express, the leader of single volume profit, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business forms S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
