Event: Recently Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) published the EIA report, and the construction project is the 1200mW pilot project of Longji Xixian Central Research Institute phase I.
Key investment points
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) construction of hjt pilot line is of great significance to hjt technology and the company itself: Recently Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) published the EIA report, and the construction project is the 1200mW pilot project of Longji Xixian Central Research Institute phase I. According to the EIA content, the equipment of Longji pilot test line this time is laser cutting machine, cashmere washing machine, PECVD, PVD, screen printing machine and other equipment. We judge that the construction capacity this time is the technical route of hjt. (1) For hjt technology, the significance of the construction of hjt pilot line in Longji is greater than the actual expansion output. Due to the subversion of hjt to traditional perc technology, in the past, the expansion of hjt technology has been promoted by new players in the industry, such as Huasheng King Kong. The construction of Longji pilot line can be understood as a change in the attitude of photovoltaic leaders towards hjt. (2) For Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , the pilot test line will lay an important foundation for the expansion of hjt mass production line in the future. Photovoltaic cell capacity construction generally needs to go through three steps of “laboratory data – pilot line – mass production line”. Longji’s GW pilot line will continue to optimize hjt technical indicators to lay the foundation for subsequent large-scale production expansion.
The equipment manufacturer determines the lower limit of technical efficiency, and the battery manufacturers develop their own upper limit: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has determined the selection of 400MW equipment, the 400MW equipment has been invited for bidding and is in line splicing, and there are still 800MW equipment to be invited for bidding in the future. What is noteworthy is that we believe that the mass production of new photovoltaic technologies determines the lower limit of efficiency through the technology of equipment manufacturers. With their own process accumulation, each manufacturer can explore and develop their own upper limit of efficiency. At present, most of the knowledge of hjt industry is concentrated in the hands of equipment manufacturers, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) as the leader of photovoltaic industry, it is expected to bring further breakthroughs to hjt industry through technical advantages.
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) hjt has accumulated in the field and its efficiency has broken records for many times: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) hjt team has profound technical accumulation and laboratory data has set world records for conversion efficiency for many times. In October 2021, it broke the world record twice a week, and the conversion efficiency of M6 battery chip reached 26.3%; On March 29, 2022, it was announced that the efficiency of M6 gallium doped p-type hjt battery reached 25.47%; On March 31, 2022, it was announced that the efficiency of M6 indium free hjt battery reached 25.40%.
The cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt is accelerated. Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt whole line equipment has high order flexibility: we believe that 2022 will be a year for the accelerated promotion of cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt, and the expectation of 20-30gw production expansion of the whole industry in 2022 remains unchanged. The expansion of the whole industry will break out in 2023 & major factories will start to expand production on a large scale, and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt whole line equipment has the greatest flexibility. (1) Silver paste: reducing silver consumption helps the cost of hjt battery drop rapidly. It is expected that the low-temperature silver clad copper technology will be mass produced within this year, and the domestic silver clad copper paste will shine. (2) Silicon wafer: slicing & the cost reduction of n-type silicon wafer is expected to become the main direction of cost reduction of hjt in the future. (3) Target materials: azo target materials help hjt to reduce costs. Sufficient indium reserves will not restrict the development of the industry. (4) Microcrystalline efficiency improvement: microcrystalline equipment is mature, and the localization of parts and components & efficiency improvement is at the right time.
Investment suggestion: silicon wafer link recommendation [ Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ] [ Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ]; [ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ] is recommended for battery chip equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ] [ Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) ]; Component equipment recommendation [ Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ]; [ Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) ] is recommended for thermal field.
Risk tip: the downstream expansion is less than the market expectation, and the industrialization process of hjt is less than the market expectation.
