\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
[event]
The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 650950 million yuan, an increase of 174% – 300% over the same period last year; It is expected to achieve basic earnings per share of 0.22 yuan / share to 0.33 yuan / share, an increase of 175% – 313% over the same period last year.
[key points of investment]
The sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to reach a new high, and the electrification dividend boosted the company’s profit growth. The company sold 29100022q1 complete vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 180% and a month on month increase of + 1.4%; During this period, 286000 new energy vehicles were sold in total, with a year-on-year increase of +423% and a month on month increase of +7.6%. The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 98.3% of the company’s total vehicle sales; Among them, the cumulative sales of pure electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrid passenger cars were 143000 and 142000 respectively. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in the same period of 22q1, the cumulative sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars were 1.07 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 145% and a month on month increase of – 8.5%. The growth rate of the company’s new energy vehicles was significantly higher than that of the industry. In addition, the company announced on April 3 that it would stop the production of fuel vehicles from March. In the future, the automobile business will focus on pure electricity and plug-in hybrid. We believe that the new energy of the company’s vehicle product structure takes the lead in the industry, or will fully enjoy the electrification dividend. It is expected that the market share of the company’s new energy vehicles will continue to rise, drive the continuous and significant improvement of profits, and partially hedge the cost pressure caused by the rise of upstream raw material prices.
Mobile phone parts and assembly business may be affected by weak industry demand, and the profit is temporarily under pressure Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic release of profit warning: the profit attributable to shareholders of 22q1 may decrease by about 75% to 85% year-on-year. Main reasons: 1) weak customer demand leads to low capacity utilization; 2) The epidemic prevention and control in production bases such as Xi’an, Shenzhen and Huizhou has been upgraded, which has affected production and operation, employee resumption and recruitment, raw material supply and logistics. Considering that the company’s total profits of mobile phone parts and assembly, rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic, automobile and automobile related products in 2021 are RMB 1.84/4.1/3.16 billion respectively (offset between segments is about RMB 900 million), and considering the company’s shareholding in Byd Company Limited(002594) electronics is about 66%, we expect that the mobile phone parts and assembly business of 22q1 will be under pressure, and the main contribution to profit growth comes from vehicle sales.
The cycle of pure electricity and plug-in hybrid products continues to be strong, and the increment of market-oriented external supply of parts can be expected. The company develops both pure electric and plug-in hybrid at the vehicle end, based on Super Hybrid DM-I and pure electric E3 0 platform R & D achievements have been transformed, and the Qin / song / Tang DM-I, dolphin pure electric and other popular models have been successfully built. The follow-up models are also fully planned and ready to go (Han DM-I, seagull, sea lion, seal, destroyer 05, etc.). The company’s 2021 financial report performance exchange disclosed that at present, the cumulative undelivered orders have reached 400000 units, and the sales volume is conservatively expected to be 1.5 million units in 2022. If the supply chain improves, it will impact the sales target of 2 million units. In addition, the market-oriented layout of the company’s parts and components continues, and the incremental space for external supply may be gradually opened: 1) in terms of power batteries, the company holds considerable external supply orders such as FAW and Ford, and continues to promote capacity construction. In the second half of 2021, four power battery subsidiaries in Anhui Wuwei, Jiangsu Yancheng, Shandong Jinan and Zhejiang Shaoxing were successively registered; 2) Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor listing process will be gradually promoted, and China’s capital market will be fully utilized to develop into a new type of efficient, intelligent and integrated semiconductor supplier; 3) Pure electric platform E3 0 with the excellent performance of new car sales, continuously verify the advantages and reliability of the scheme, or save and provide opportunities in the future.
[investment suggestions]
The company’s new energy vehicle product cycle continues to be strong, the self-control of core devices such as blade batteries and power semiconductors, and the leading platform technologies such as DM-I super hybrid and E platform 3.0. Considering the continued strong sales performance of 22q1 new energy vehicles and the gradual realization of profit side electrification dividends, we slightly raised the profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 20222024 will be 3085 / 4037 / 504.6 billion yuan, the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be increased from 75.6/139.6/20.89 billion yuan to 76.8/142.6/21.1 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 2.64/4.90/7.25 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 91 / 49 / 33 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
[risk tips]
Chip supply shortage; Price rise of upstream raw materials; The competition of new energy vehicle products has intensified.
